UK Data Response Money & Credit (Oct.) October’s money and credit data showed that the mini-boom in the housing market continued, but a fall in consumer credit suggests that consumer spending was already faltering before lockdown was... 30th November 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Money & Credit (Oct.) October’s money and credit data showed that the mini-boom in the housing market continued, but a fall in consumer credit suggests that consumer spending was already faltering before lockdown was... 30th November 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Markets Outlook Vaccines allow UK assets to catch up After having been hit particularly hard during the COVID-19 crisis, UK assets are well placed to perform much better now that COVID-19 vaccines are brightening the economic outlook. Indeed, the... 24th November 2020 · 12 mins read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Nov.) The relatively small fall in November’s flash composite PMI suggests that the hit to GDP from the second lockdown will be much smaller than the first and that our expectation of an 8% m/m drop in GDP... 23rd November 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) The further rise in retail sales in October means that retail sales are now 6.8% above their pre-virus level. But the current lockdown means that retail sales, and total consumer spending, will... 20th November 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) The further rise in retail sales in October means that retail sales are now 6.8% above their pre-virus level. But the current lockdown means that retail sales, and total consumer spending, will... 20th November 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update How much slack is there in the labour market? Our measures of labour market slack suggest that the official unemployment rate is significantly understating how much spare capacity there is at the moment and will probably continue to do so for a... 16th November 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update How much slack is there in the labour market? Our measures of labour market slack suggest that the official unemployment rate is significantly understating how much spare capacity there is at the moment and will probably continue to do so for a... 16th November 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response GDP (Sep. & Q3) We now know that the record breaking fall in GDP of 19.8% q/q in Q2 was followed by a record breaking rise of 15.5% q/q in Q3. But meagre growth in September shows that the recovery was rapidly... 12th November 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Data Response GDP (Sep. & Q3) We now know that the record breaking fall in GDP of 19.8% q/q in Q2 was followed by a record breaking rise of 15.5% q/q in Q3. But meagre growth in September shows that the recovery was rapidly... 12th November 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Lockdown and Brexit make for a bumpy Christmas The UK is facing up to the possibility of a festive period dominated by COVID-19 restrictions and Brexit. We think that the England-wide lockdown will shrink the economy by 8% m/m in November and that... 9th November 2020 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Lockdown and Brexit make for a bumpy Christmas The UK is facing up to the possibility of a festive period dominated by COVID-19 restrictions and Brexit. We think that the England-wide lockdown will shrink the economy by 8% m/m in November and that... 9th November 2020 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Lockdown déjà vu The second lockdown will probably reduce the level of GDP in November by about 8.0% m/m. That would mean GDP in November would be about 15.5% below February’s level and might not regain its pre-crisis... 6th November 2020 · 8 mins read
