UK Data Response Retail Sales (Feb.) The 0.3% m/m fall in retail sales volumes in February (consensus +0.2%) suggests that even prior to the disruption from the coronavirus, consumers were already starting to rein in spending. 26th March 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Unemployment rate to rise by less than in the GFC The enormous fall in GDP that we have pencilled in for Q2 as a result of the economic effects of the coronavirus implies that the unemployment rate will spike over the next few months and that incomes... 24th March 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Sterling big casualty of financial market disarray 18th March 2020 · 8 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Jan.) The strong rate of employment growth at the start of the year is a rare bit of good news for the economy at the minute. But this growth will give way to a plunge in employment in the coming months. 17th March 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Relative winners and losers from the coronavirus fallout While it is a given that GDP growth will slow sharply over the next few months as the economic consequences of the coronavirus are felt, some sectors will weather the storm better than others. We... 12th March 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2020 – Austerity is out, spending is in The coordinated fiscal and monetary stimulus announced by the Chancellor and the Bank of England today shows that policymakers are pulling out all the stops to ensure that the coronavirus results in... 11th March 2020 · 10 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Coronavirus hit to the economy is coming The economy started the year on a strong note, but it is only a matter of time before it succumbs to the effects of the coronavirus. To reflect the weaker global backdrop and the likelihood that... 5th March 2020 · 8 mins read
UK Data Response Business & Consumer Confidence (Feb.) The European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for the UK concurs with the message from the flash PMIs last week that the UK’s economic recovery continued in February. But consumer... 27th February 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Economic rebound in progress, but clouds on the horizon The first official data for January piled more evidence onto our view that the economy will rebound in Q1 2020 after hitting a nadir in Q4 2019. But the growing impact of coronavirus on China’s... 21st February 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Dec.) The larger-than-expected rise in employment in December suggests that the labour market joined the rest of the economy in turning a corner at the end of last year. However, pay growth is softening... 18th February 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Markets Outlook Markets may be caught out on interest rates We think the financial markets will be caught out this year by a decent acceleration in the quarterly rate of GDP growth preventing interest rates from being cut below 0.75%. And if we are right to... 12th February 2020 · 12 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Activity no longer in rate-cutting territory Signs that the economy has turned a corner support our view that interest rates won’t be cut from 0.75% this year. After all, the activity PMIs are no longer in the territory where rates have been cut... 6th February 2020 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Update Don’t fret about weak consumer spending It’s possible that consumer spending stagnated or even fell outright in Q4. But this is not too worrying as stronger growth in incomes, a fall in uncertainty and a rise in confidence should lead to a... 5th February 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Turning the corner We think the economy has turned a corner and that GDP growth will beat the consensus forecast by accelerating from 1.0% this year to 1.8% next year. Of course, the lingering uncertainty over the UK’s... 28th January 2020 · 25 mins read
UK Data Response CBI Industrial Trends (Jan.) & Public Finances (Dec.) The rebound in the main balances of the CBI Industrial Trends Survey in January offers further evidence that sentiment has taken an upward turn after the general election. This should help to convince... 22nd January 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Nov.) The larger-than-expected rise in employment in November suggests the labour market has turned a corner after the weakness in Q3. That could help to convince the Monetary Policy Committee to hold off... 21st January 2020 · 2 mins read
