UK Data Response Public Finances (Nov.) November’s surge in borrowing is unlikely to be reversed much over the next few months as the ongoing COVID-19 restrictions keep many businesses closed. This will only increase talk of how to pay for... 22nd December 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) The relatively small drop in retail sales in November indicates that the second COVID-19 lockdown didn’t change households spending behaviour by anywhere near as much as the first. And it suggests... 18th December 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) The relatively small drop in retail sales in November indicates that the second COVID-19 lockdown didn’t change households spending behaviour by anywhere near as much as the first. And it suggests... 18th December 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update MPC will be asking Santa for a Brexit deal The positive news on vaccines meant that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) didn’t feel the need to loosen policy any further at its December meeting today. And, as long as there is a Brexit deal by... 17th December 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update MPC will be asking Santa for a Brexit deal The positive news on vaccines meant that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) didn’t feel the need to loosen policy any further at its December meeting today. And, as long as there is a Brexit deal by... 17th December 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Sterling’s swings leave more downside than upside The recent swings in sterling triggered by shifts in sentiment towards the chances of a Brexit deal have left little room for the pound to appreciate if there’s a deal, but plenty of room for it to... 16th December 2020 · 8 mins read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Dec.) The small rebound in the composite PMI in December suggests that GDP did not make much of a recovery after the hit to activity from the COVID-19 lockdown in November. But it is probably understating... 16th December 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Dec.) The small rebound in the composite PMI in December suggests that GDP did not make much of a recovery after the hit to activity from the COVID-19 lockdown in November. But it is probably understating... 16th December 2020 · 3 mins read
BoE Watch No further stimulus, unless there is a no deal Brexit The next Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on Thursday 17 th December should be less eventful than the last one. Indeed, if our more optimistic economic forecasts are even close to being right... 10th December 2020 · 8 mins read
BoE Watch No further stimulus, unless there is a no deal Brexit The next Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on Thursday 17 th December should be less eventful than the last one. Indeed, if our more optimistic economic forecasts are even close to being right... 10th December 2020 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Update Five often missed points on Brexit Brexit is going to get a lot of airtime over the next few hours, days and weeks, especially once the outcome of the call between Boris Johnson and Ursula von der Leyen later this afternoon is made... 7th December 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Five often missed points on Brexit Brexit is going to get a lot of airtime over the next few hours, days and weeks, especially once the outcome of the call between Boris Johnson and Ursula von der Leyen later this afternoon is made... 7th December 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Will they won't they? The Brexit negotiations may finally come to a head this week before the next EU summit on Thursday 10 th December. We still think that a deal is more likely than not and with the pound already at our... 4th December 2020 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Brexit: will they won't they? The Brexit negotiations may finally come to a head this week before the next EU summit on Thursday 10 th December. We still think that a deal is more likely than not and with the pound already at our... 4th December 2020 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Vaccines will help the labour market heal COVID-19 vaccines have dramatically brightened the economic outlook. GDP probably still fell during the second lockdown in November, perhaps by up to 8% m/m, and the strict COVID-19 regional tier... 3rd December 2020 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Vaccines will help the labour market heal COVID-19 vaccines have dramatically brightened the economic outlook. GDP probably still fell during the second lockdown in November, perhaps by up to 8% m/m, and the strict COVID-19 regional tier... 3rd December 2020 · 9 mins read
