UK Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) The sharp fall in retail sales in January suggests that the third COVID-19 lockdown hit the economy harder than the second lockdown in November. Retailers may have to endure a few more months of... 19th February 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Markets Outlook Shaking off the underperformance UK assets are well placed to shake off their underperformance since the 2016 Brexit vote by outperforming global assets over the next couple of years. All risky assets will continue to be buoyed by... 15th February 2021 · 12 mins read
UK Data Response GDP (Dec & Q4.) The media headlines have focused on the record-breaking 9.9% decline in annual GDP in 2020, but the rise in GDP in Q4, despite the COVID-19 lockdown in November and restrictions in December, is... 12th February 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update How to spot if the COVID-19 crisis has left a scar Even though we don’t expect there to be much, if any, long-term economic scarring from the COVID-19 crisis, a surge in the number of businesses going insolvent, a jump in the long-term unemployment... 9th February 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack A heavy January hangover for trade After having been boosted by stockbuilding ahead of the end of the Brexit transition period on 31st December, exports and imports were always going to fall in January. But the added drags of COVID-19... 3rd February 2021 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Labour market having a remarkably good crisis The labour market has been remarkably strong since the onset of the pandemic. And even if the unemployment rate does rise to 6.5% by the end of this year, as we expect, the government would probably... 29th January 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Inflation expectations unlikely to lift gilt yields much 10-year gilt yields haven’t been significantly dragged higher by 10-year US Treasury yields because, unlike their US counterparts, break-even inflation rates in the UK have not been boosted by... 27th January 2021 · 8 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Nov./Dec.) The rise in the unemployment rate in November is another step up on the climb towards the 6.5% peak we expect by the end of the year. But with the rollout of vaccines going well, the jobless rate may... 26th January 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Dec.) December’s jump in borrowing is likely to set the tone for the next few months as the third COVID-19 lockdown keeps many businesses closed and will only increase talk of how to pay for the crisis. But... 22nd January 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) The rise in CPI inflation from 0.3% in November to 0.6% in December and in the core rate from 1.1% to 1.4% may represent the first step on a climb towards a peak of about 2.5% by the end of the year... 20th January 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economic Outlook A faster and fuller recovery within sight Our view that the economy will return to its pre-pandemic size in Q1 2022 and that it won’t be permanently smaller due to the pandemic is a more optimistic take than that of most forecasters. It... 19th January 2021 · 26 mins read
UK Economics Weekly When will vaccines unlock the economy? The length of the third lockdown in England will largely be determined by how long it takes to vaccinate the most vulnerable people. As a result, the pace of vaccinations over the next few weeks will... 8th January 2021 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Update Bank may not be able to use negative rates until H2 2021 7th January 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Bank may not be able to use negative rates until H2 2021 The Bank of England may not be ready to use negative interest rates until H2 2021. And by then, COVID-19 restrictions might be easing and the economy could be growing rapidly. In any case, if the Bank... 7th January 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Nov.) November’s surge in borrowing is unlikely to be reversed much over the next few months as the ongoing COVID-19 restrictions keep many businesses closed. This will only increase talk of how to pay for... 22nd December 2020 · 3 mins read
