UK Economics Retail Sales (Mar.) March’s strong rise in retail sales showed that the economy made a fair bit of progress even before non-essential retailers reopened in April. And sales will probably leap further in April. 23rd April 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Rapid economic recovery to support equities Our view that the economy’s recovery from the COVID-19 crisis will be faster and fuller than most expect is consistent with UK equity prices continuing to rise over the next couple of years... 22nd April 2021 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Labour Market (Feb./Mar.) The slight fall in the unemployment rate in February suggests that the government’s job furlough scheme is still insulating the labour market from the worst effects of the pandemic. We still expect... 20th April 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid recovery to limit scarring While we think the reopening of the economy and the vaccine rollout will allow GDP to return to its pre-pandemic level a bit earlier than most forecasters, the big difference between us and the... 15th April 2021 · 26 mins read
UK Economics GDP & International Trade (Feb.) Given there was no change in the lockdown restrictions in February, GDP was never going to shoot back up. But the small rise does suggest that January was probably the low point of the year. We think... 13th April 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Stronger investment reduces risk of scarring, US-UK trade war unlikely The better news on business investment gives us even more confidence in our view that there probably won’t be much, if any, long-term scarring from the pandemic. At the same time, we are not concerned... 1st April 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Money & Credit (Feb.) The COVID-19 lockdown pattern of households paying back credit and investing in property but small businesses loading up on debt continued in February. We doubt much changed in March, but this pattern... 29th March 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Pricing in higher inflation and interest rates The jump in 10-year gilt yields from 0.29% at the end of January to 0.76% now has been driven by the markets pricing in a rise in inflation after the pandemic that they think will eventually prompt... 24th March 2021 · 8 mins read
UK Economics IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Mar.) The rise in the IHS Markit/CIPS composite activity PMI in March suggests that the economy has started to pick up. And once the COVID-19 shackles start to be released next month, activity will probably... 24th March 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Feb.) February’s public finances figures showed that borrowing may come in a little below the OBR’s 2020/21 forecast of £355bn. But if we are right in thinking the economic recovery will be faster and... 19th March 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly BoE and ECB on different paths, UK GDP preparing for the ascent The worst of the effects from both COVID-19 and Brexit are now probably behind the economy and, as long as there is not another surge in virus cases, GDP should quickly climb over the next few months... 12th March 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Unemployment rate may peak at only 6.0% The rapid rollout of COVID-19 vaccines, the reopening of schools and the staggered reopening of other sectors from mid-April should mean that the probable fall in GDP in January proves to be the low... 10th March 2021 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Budget 2021 – Filling the fiscal hole While most governments are focussed squarely on maintaining or increasing fiscal support for their economies, in today’s Budget the Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, adopted a different two-staged plan for the... 3rd March 2021 · 11 mins read
UK Economics Update Soaring earnings growth not as good as it looks The surge in average earnings growth to a ten-year high is not what it seems as it’s partly due to large numbers of lower-paid workers losing their jobs. As such, the upward pressure on inflation from... 25th February 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Dec./Jan.) The rise in the unemployment rate in December is another step up on the climb towards the 6.5% peak we expect by the end of the year. But if the government follows the roadmap that it laid out on... 23rd February 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Lockdown exit plan to shed light on speed of the recovery The sharp fall in retail sales in January suggested that January’s lockdown hit the economy harder than November’s lockdown. But at least it doesn’t look like things deteriorated further in February... 19th February 2021 · 5 mins read
