Latin America Chart Pack Q3 the high point in the regional recovery We estimate that regional GDP growth picked up to about 0.5% q/q in Q3, which would be the fastest pace in 18 months. But that probably marks the peak in the recovery. Argentina and Chile are set to... 29th November 2019 · 12 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Distressed bonds likely to head in opposite directions Ecuador this month joined the handful of frontier economies where sovereign dollar bonds are trading at levels commonly associated with default. But with the IMF likely to stand by the government, we... 28th November 2019 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Could Venezuela dollarise successfully? Comments by Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro suggest that the government considers dollarisation as an option to tackle hyperinflation. If implemented, this would probably bring inflation down... 28th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Ecuadorian bonds, Brazilian real, Argentina and the IMF Ecuadorian bond spreads jumped this week after the failure of a government tax proposal, but we think that the market has gone too far and that today’s rebound has further to run. Brazil’s currency... 22nd November 2019 · 4 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Nov.) Inflation ticked up in the first half of November in both Brazil and Mexico, but we doubt that this will be enough to dissuade policymakers from cutting their key interest rates in December. We expect... 22nd November 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Peru GDP (Q3 2019) The pick-up in Peruvian GDP growth from 1.2% y/y in Q2 to 3.0% y/y in Q3 probably marks the beginning of a sustained economic recovery. While GDP growth over this year as a whole is likely to be just... 21st November 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile GDP picks up in Q3, Q4 likely to contract While GDP growth picked up in Q3, activity data for September indicates that the economy had already slowed significantly prior to the protests beginning. GDP is likely to contract in Q4. That said... 18th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Chilean referendum offer, Argentina bonds, Mexico rates Chilean markets rebounded today on news that congress accepted protestors’ demand that a constituent assembly play a role in writing a new constitution next year. This suggests that the crisis may... 15th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Peru cuts rates, strikes neutral tone The statement accompanying yesterday’s decision by Peru’s central bank to cut interest rates made it clear that this did not mark the beginning of an easing cycle. And with inflation and economic... 8th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Taking stock of the Chilean protests There is a good chance that protests caused GDP to contract in Q4. While we expect growth to strengthen by next year, the weak starting point from Q4 has prompted us to revise down our 2020 growth... 7th November 2019 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian household spending set to weaken Colombia’s economic recovery since 2017 has been in large part due to strength in private consumption, but we think it will likely slow in the coming quarters. This is one reason why our 2020 growth... 4th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Political uncertainty reigns in Argentina and Chile The victory for Peronist Alberto Fernández in Argentina’s presidential election on Sunday provoked a small negative shock in local financial markets. And the fact that he has done little to soothe... 1st November 2019 · 5 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Political clouds gather Political risk grabbed the headlines this month, with protestors taking to the streets across the Andes and Argentina electing a new Peronist president. Demonstrations in Ecuador and Chile will weigh... 31st October 2019 · 13 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Default fears crystallising The spotlight has shifted back onto weak sovereign debt positions in Frontier Markets this month after the election of a left-wing president in Argentina and growing political instability in Lebanon... 31st October 2019 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Update A closer look at Ecuador’s fiscal challenges Ecuador’s government has successfully stabilised the debt-to-GDP ratio, and it remains committed to IMF plans to cut the public debt ratio to just 30% of GDP. But the president’s climbdown in the face... 29th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile cuts rates, drops heavy hints for more easing Chilean policymakers’ decision to cut their key interest rate by 25bp yesterday and the dovish tone of the accompanying statement supports our view that the easing cycle has further to run. We... 24th October 2019 · 3 mins read
