Latin America Economics Update What’s next for Latam dollar bond spreads? Latin American dollar bonds have performed relatively well since fears related to the coronavirus started to weigh on the region’s financial markets. But if commodity prices and currencies in the... 11th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico CPI (Jan.) The rise in Mexican inflation from 2.8% y/y in December to 3.2% y/y in January supports our view that, while the central bank will cut interest rates further, the easing cycle won’t go as far as... 7th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Coronavirus fears hit Latin American markets The decline in energy and metals prices caused by concerns about the coronavirus took a heavy toll on the region’s financial markets in the last few weeks. The Brazilian and Chilean currencies have... 30th January 2020 · 12 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What next for Chilean bond yields? We expect that Chile’s central bank will cut interest rates later this year, and that this will push local currency bond yields down over the next 12 months. But with the demands of protestors likely... 29th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap IMF in focus Argentina’s new government began official talks with the IMF over the future of its record-breaking bailout programme this month, and Lebanese policymakers appear to be warming to the idea of striking... 29th January 2020 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook A fitful recovery Growth in most Latin American economies should strengthen in 2020, but we expect that these recoveries will be slow and fragile. Indeed, the region is likely to be the worst performing part of the... 21st January 2020 · 26 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Chilean peso hits a bump, AMLO’s oil dilemma The Chilean peso was the worst performing major EM currency this week, but there are still good reasons to think that it will appreciate by later this year. Elsewhere, the discovery of a major... 10th January 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Data Response Chile CPI (Dec.) The rise in Chilean inflation to 3.0% y/y in December is likely to be followed by a further increase to around 4.0% y/y over the first half of this year. That said, this period of above-target... 8th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Mixed end to a disappointing year The last round of economic data released this year pointed to a mixed performance in Latin America. Growth seems to have remained robust in Colombia in Q4 – and to have strengthened in Brazil – but... 19th December 2019 · 13 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Rally in Argentine & Lebanese bonds to go into reverse Argentine and Lebanese sovereign dollar bond spreads have narrowed over the past month, but we think that they will widen again before long. The narrowing has been most dramatic in Argentina, where... 19th December 2019 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chilean fiscal policy: How worried should we be? Protests in Chile will probably result in a shift towards permanently looser fiscal policy. But it would take a long time for the debt ratio to become a concern, so any corresponding rise in bond... 16th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Guessing about Guzmán, USMCA deal finalised Comments from Argentina’s President Fernández and his economy minister Martín Guzmán this week provided some relief that they don’t plan to return to ‘kirchnerismo’. But lingering uncertainty over the... 13th December 2019 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s new cabinet, Chile’s economic pain Recent reports suggest that Argentina President-elect Alberto Fernández, who takes office on Tuesday, has selected Martín Guzmán as his economy minister. That’s unlikely to inspire much investor... 6th December 2019 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Chile CPI (Nov.) The rise in Chilean inflation to 2.7% y/y in November is likely to be followed by a further increase to around 4.0% y/y early next year. That said, this increase will be temporary. As a result, we... 6th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile holds rates, but cuts still likely in late 2020 The statement accompanying the Chilean central bank’s decision to hold interest rates at 1.75% yesterday signalled that policy rates will be left unchanged over Q1, but we still think it’s most likely... 5th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What next for the Chilean peso? While there is likely to be more turbulence ahead for the Chilean peso, the big falls are probably behind us. Indeed, with the central bank intervening and copper prices likely to rise, we think it’s... 4th December 2019 · 3 mins read
