Latin America Economics Update First thoughts on the protests in Chile As things stand, there are reasons to think that the protests that erupted in Chile in recent days will have a relatively small impact on the economy and financial markets. The central bank is likely... 21st October 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico & the GM strike, austerity in Colombia The knock-on effects of the strike by GM auto workers in the US mean that the Mexican manufacturing figures due in the coming months will make for grim reading. But if GM’s deal with striking workers... 18th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Slow regional recovery, Argentina headed for default After a weak 2019, we expect that growth across most of Latin America will improve next year. That said, our forecasts for the regions two biggest economies – Brazil and Mexico – are below consensus... 16th October 2019 · 27 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Protests in Ecuador, soft Latam inflation Intensifying anti-austerity protests in Ecuador have threatened the government’s reform agenda and caused bond spreads to widen this week. But even if the government does water down its fiscal plans... 11th October 2019 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Peru’s political crisis, dire surveys in Mexico The political turmoil that erupted in Peru earlier this week now seems to be fizzling out, supporting our view that it will have a limited impact on the economy. Elsewhere, we suspect that the Mexican... 4th October 2019 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Weakness in Chilean consumption will be temporary Chile’s economic slowdown this year was mostly due to weaker private consumption, caused by a fall in consumer confidence. But with the labour market strengthening and copper prices likely to rise... 3rd October 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Peru in good position to weather political crisis The dissolution of congress by President Martin Vizcarra and his heated stand-off with the opposition will likely cause a sell-off in markets and further political gridlock. But as things stand, we... 1st October 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Rate cuts in Brazil and Mexico will continue The central banks of Brazil and Mexico loosened policy this month, and we expect that they will continue to cut rates in Q4. Inflation in both countries is below target, and both economies are... 30th September 2019 · 12 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap A spotlight on inflation problems The weakest balance sheets in the emerging world are concentrated in the Frontier Markets and, as a result, balance of payments crises occur more regularly. This lies behind Venezuela’s crisis, but... 30th September 2019 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Where are we with Venezuela’s inflation? President Nicholas Maduro’s attempts to control inflation have had some effect, but without more severe measures we think that price pressures will probably remain extremely high over the coming... 23rd September 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Pemex cash injection, resilient Brazilian consumers The decision by Mexican policymakers this week to provide support to Pemex to help it refinance its debts adds to signs that policymakers are starting to acknowledge the gravity of the problems at the... 13th September 2019 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Revisiting our currency forecasts Latin American currencies are likely to weaken further in the coming months alongside most EM currencies. But while we expect the Chilean peso and Peruvian sol to end next year stronger than their... 11th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA & Chile CPI (Aug.) The small rise in Brazilian inflation (to 3.4%y/y in August) is unlikely to trouble policymakers at the central bank. With the headline rate below target and the economy struggling, we expect a 50bp... 6th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile CB slashes rates, leaves door open for more Yesterday’s MPC statement suggested that Chilean policymakers will follow yesterday’s 50bp cut with more easing. The latest growth and inflation data have been weak, and there is a window for further... 4th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian investment set to slow We think that low oil prices and a continued slump in the property sector will cause investment growth in Colombia to slow in the coming quarters. This is one reason why our growth forecasts sit at... 3rd September 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Argentina turns to default The collapse in Argentine assets this month and the subsequent news that the government will seek to reprofile its debts puts the country on the brink of its fifth default in thirty years. The economy... 30th August 2019 · 12 mins read
