Latin America Economics Update What more can Chile’s central bank do? With the Central Bank of Chile’s policy rate at its effective lower bound, we think that its next easing measure would be a quantitative easing programme aimed at flattening the long end of the yield... 8th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico’s downturn, Peru & the IMF The early data for March supported our view that Mexico’s economy is suffering a fall in output that is at least as bad as it was during the Global Financial Crisis. And the government’s reluctance to... 3rd April 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What do the latest surveys tell us? Last month’s survey data for Brazil and Mexico don’t capture most of the impact of the ramping up of social distancing measures in the second half of March, but they still suggest that both economies... 2nd April 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile cuts rates, more easing in store Chile’s central bank suggested that, having cut its policy rate to 0.5% yesterday, rates will remain at this low level for an extended period of time. But given the scale of the economic hit from the... 1st April 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Are Latin American policymakers doing enough? Policymakers in Peru and Chile have been quick to introduce economic policy and containment measures in response to the coronavirus, but peers elsewhere – particularly in Brazil and Mexico – have made... 31st March 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Bolsonaro behind the curve, Ecuador debt talks Confirmed cases of the coronavirus have surged to nearly 3,000 in Brazil over the past week, and the stumbling response from President Bolsonaro could deepen and prolong the economic damage. Elsewhere... 27th March 2020 · 6 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America set for a deep recession The outbreak of the coronavirus in Latin America has developed rapidly over the past few weeks. This Chart Book will focus on the most timely measures of activity to get a better sense of the... 27th March 2020 · 11 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Gauging the impact of Lat Am currency falls The turmoil in Latin American currency markets will push up inflation, particularly in Brazil, Mexico and Colombia, and it already appears to have resulted in strains in corporate bond markets. One... 23rd March 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Tighter financial conditions a growing headwind Financial conditions have generally tightened more in Latin America (particularly Mexico) than in the rest of the emerging world in recent weeks. This presents another reason to think that activity... 18th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Is Ecuador on the brink of default? The fall in oil prices has increased default risk in Ecuador. But given the government’s track record of fiscal austerity and the possibility of further multilateral financial support, the likelihood... 11th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Latin America: Counting the cost of lower oil prices The latest fall in oil prices will aggravate Venezuela’s crisis and increase the risk of a sovereign default in Ecuador. Elsewhere, there is likely to be a hit to growth in Mexico and Colombia. And... 9th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin American markets in the firing line Latin American currencies and equities have been among the worst performers in the emerging world this month as fears about the spread of the coronavirus have intensified. The region has limited... 27th February 2020 · 13 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontiers among most exposed to coronavirus fallout The economic fallout from the coronavirus outbreak is likely to be particularly severe for a number of frontier markets. Due to its deep integration into global supply chains, Vietnam’s economy will... 27th February 2020 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Colombian growth to slow even if oil prices recover Fears about the coronavirus have weighed on oil prices and clouded the near-term outlook for Colombia’s economy. But even if – as we expect, the virus is brought under control soon and oil prices... 24th February 2020 · 13 mins read
Latin America Data Response Peru GDP (Q4 2019) We think that the slowdown in Peruvian GDP growth from 3.0% y/y in Q3 to 1.8% y/y in Q4 will be temporary and expect that the economy will recover more quickly than most expect this year. 21st February 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q4 2019) Colombian GDP growth ticked down to 3.4% y/y in Q4 from 3.5% y/y in Q3 and we think that growth will slow further this year. The consensus expectations for growth look too optimistic. 14th February 2020 · 2 mins read
