Frontier Markets Wrap Sovereign debt in the spotlight Besides Argentina, EM sovereign debt risks are most acute in the smaller frontier markets. Investors have, rightly in our view, become more concerned about Lebanon’s public finances. And the... 30th August 2019 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Peru’s economy to shrug off political uncertainty The recent political turmoil in Peru has stoked fears about governability issues, and congressional gridlock is likely to continue in the near term. But in contrast to many other analysts, we doubt... 21st August 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q2 2019) Colombian GDP growth remained strong in Q2 at 3.0% y/y, and we’ve revised up our forecast for 2019 from 2.0% to 2.8%. But we still think that the consensus forecasts are too optimistic. 15th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Peru latest CB to cut rates, leaves door open for more The statement accompanying the decision by Peru’s central bank to cut interest rates left the door open for further easing. And with the incoming growth and inflation data still weak, there is a... 9th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA & Chile CPI (Jul.) The decline in inflation in Brazil and Chile in July points to further monetary easing, and we currently expect a 25bp interest rate cut in both countries next month. In Brazil, with pension reform... 8th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico stimulus, Colombia austerity, dovish surprises The Mexican government’s fiscal stimulus, unveiled this week, looks large enough to support an economic recovery in the second half of the year, but raises medium term fiscal risks. In contrast... 2nd August 2019 · 8 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier sovereign bond rally likely to go into reverse The recent rally in frontier sovereign dollar bonds is unlikely to be sustained and we expect spreads to widen in Argentina, Ukraine and parts of the Middle East. 30th July 2019 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia unlikely to join global easing cycle A number of major central banks in Latin America are on the cusp of joining the global easing cycle but, in contrast to the prevailing view, we don’t think that Colombia will be one of them. We expect... 25th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Interest rate cuts imminent The case for interest rate cuts across Latin America has strengthened in the past month, partly because of the dovish shift by the Fed, but also because of soft domestic inflation and growth... 25th July 2019 · 12 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What next for fiscal policy? With budget deficits still large in Brazil and Argentina, fiscal policy there will continue to be tightened over the coming years. But small budget deficits in Mexico, Chile and Peru mean that... 15th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Regional recovery to be slow-going After a terrible start to the year, we expect economic growth in Latin America to pick up over the next 12-18 months. However, recoveries in most cases will be weak. Indeed, our GDP forecasts for many... 12th July 2019 · 27 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Investors go from too hawkish to too dovish Investors have rapidly come round to our dovish view on Latin American monetary policy but, if anything, they have probably now gone too far in anticipating large rate cuts across the region over the... 25th June 2019 · 12 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Further weakness in store for the Colombian peso The Colombian peso has been the worst performing EM currency so far this month and we expect it to fall by another 8% or so against the dollar by year-end. The resulting rise in inflation is likely to... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: judging the impact of the Venezuelan crisis The collapse of Venezuela’s economy has placed strains on Colombia’s social welfare system but, if anything, it is actually likely to have a small positive impact on Colombian GDP growth. 7th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: Ecopetrol sale won’t solve fiscal problems A partial sale of Colombia’s state-owned oil company, Ecopetrol, now appears likely and should limit the scale of fiscal austerity, particularly in 2020. But Colombia is yet to fully adjust to low oil... 26th February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What next for interest rates in the Andes? The weakness of the latest inflation and economic activity data in Chile means we now think that the central bank will pause its tightening cycle until next year (previously we expected 50bp of hikes... 18th February 2019 · 1 min read
