Latin America Economics Update Chile central bank delves into unconventional toolbox The decision by Chile’s central bank to leave its policy interest rate unchanged at 0.50% was accompanied by a statement which appeared to unveil a QE programme. The finer details will be fleshed out... 17th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil data debacle, Chile doubles down on lockdown This week’s Covid data debacle is the latest misstep by Brazil’s government, and further policy fumbles could see the bond markets take fright, worsening the public debt dynamics. Meanwhile, Chile’s... 12th June 2020 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Finding the floor for rates in Latin America Our Taylor Rules suggest that monetary easing cycles have further to run in Brazil, Mexico and Colombia, and we have pencilled in additional interest rate cuts in all three countries. Moreover... 11th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Taking stock of lockdown damage as outlook worsens The latest activity data suggest that stringent lockdowns are causing especially deep falls in GDP in Peru and Argentina. But with the region as a whole struggling to contain outbreaks, and limited... 3rd June 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Becoming the coronavirus epicentre The coronavirus has continued to spread rapidly across much of the region, with Brazil now registering the most new cases per day of any country in the world. And on a per capita basis, the surge in... 29th May 2020 · 13 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Covid hotspots, GDP falls, austerity in Ecuador Parts of Latin America are seeing some of the sharpest rises in new coronavirus cases globally, meaning that lockdown measures – and the corresponding hit to activity – are likely to remain in place... 22nd May 2020 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: deeper downturn, but fast recovery Q1 GDP data from Peru suggest that its lockdown is having a bigger impact on activity than measures elsewhere in Latin America. And with new infections in Peru surging in recent weeks, we are revising... 22nd May 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia’s downturn worse than we feared The weaker-than-expected Q1 GDP figure, coupled with signs that Q2 is shaping up to be worse than we had initially thought, has prompted us to revise down our estimate for the fall in Colombian GDP... 19th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP & Current Account (Q1) While Chile’s economy grew strongly in Q1, this was largely due to favourable base effects resulting from strikes in Q4, and hides a sharp deterioration in activity in March. We expect a steep... 18th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazilian politics getting messy, Chile’s FCL and bonds The unfolding political crisis in Brazil has continued to put local financial markets under pressure and it's increasingly difficult to see the political risk premium on asset prices evaporating... 15th May 2020 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Are investors too sanguine on Colombian debt? Colombia’s public debt ratio will rise sharply this year and we disagree with the consensus view that it will fall back from 2021. This is likely to limit any recovery in the Colombian bond market... 14th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil and Mexico set for double-digit contractions The collapse in the confidence surveys in Brazil and Mexico last month point to a contraction in activity that exceeds that experienced in each economy during the Global Financial Crisis. And with... 5th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia cuts rates, more easing in store The statement accompanying the Colombian central bank’s decision to cut the policy rate by 50bp to 3.25% left the door open for more easing. Given the scale of the economic hit that we expect, the... 1st May 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Lockdowns easing only in parts of the region The Latin American economies that moved early to contain the coronavirus – Chile, Colombia and Peru – are all now starting to look at ways to ease lockdown measures, which should support a gradual... 1st May 2020 · 11 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Latin American banks: where do the risks lie? Latin American banks are generally in good shape, but the sheer scale of the fall in output and limited policy responses to protect incomes in parts of the region mean that the rise in bad loans could... 29th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Brazil and Mexico to come out worst The downturn in Latin America this year will the deepest since reliable records began. The slow policy responses in Brazil and Mexico, as well as struggles to bring their coronavirus outbreaks under... 24th April 2020 · 18 mins read
