Latin America Economics Update Four questions on Peru’s (latest) political crisis Votes due this week by Peru’s congress on whether to impeach the president and to censure (remove) the finance minister will likely be close calls and could leave a power vacuum. That said, history... 14th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: Stronger recovery to keep BCC on the side-lines Chile’s economy is recovering more quickly than we had previously expected and, as a result, we are revising up our 2020 GDP growth forecast to -5.5% (previously -7.0%). The stronger rebound has eased... 10th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Peru in dire straits, but reasons for cautious optimism The latest data suggest that, after one of the world’s steepest economic declines in Q2, Peru’s recovery is already stalling against a backdrop of high and rising new coronavirus cases. But for those... 2nd September 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Diverging outlook for Lat Am local currency bonds Local currency government bond markets in Latin America generally came under pressure this month, but we think that most will rally over the rest of the year. In Chile and Peru, while local currency... 27th August 2020 · 14 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombia’s pensions, external surpluses & Mexican oil Colombia may be about to follow Chile and Peru in allowing citizens to tap into their pension savings, which would help to shore up near-term consumer spending. But Colombia has less scope than its... 31st July 2020 · 6 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Regional recovery off to a slow start The number of new daily coronavirus cases in the region has continued to rise, with only Chile among the major economies appearing to get its outbreak under control. Restrictions have been lifted much... 31st July 2020 · 14 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile’s pension bill: the economic & market impact Reforms in Chile that allow households to withdraw some of their pension savings may help to boost the economic recovery over the next year. But the way in which the reform was passed adds to the... 29th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Lagging behind The failure to contain the coronavirus and the small size of fiscal support in some countries mean that Latin America will have the weakest recovery of any region globally. Brazil, Mexico and Colombia... 23rd July 2020 · 25 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Ecuador: breathing room, but long fight still ahead The debt restructuring deal provisionally agreed between Ecuador’s government and a group of its creditors would, if implemented, ease near-term pressures on the public finances. But we are more... 13th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update More evidence of major fiscal damage After blowing out in April, budget deficits in Latin America remained wide in May. And while a pick-up in economic activity should help tax revenues to recover and social welfare spending to ease over... 8th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Taking stock of the recovery in Latin America The latest surveys and high-frequency data suggest that Latin America’s economic recovery finally started to firm up in June. But it is still lagging other EM regions – and Chile’s recovery is yet to... 6th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: still room for another few rate cuts The decision by the Colombian central bank to slow the pace of easing from 50bp to 25bp at last night’s meeting suggests that the rate-cutting cycle is approaching its conclusion. We remain... 1st July 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Fiscal paths, Brazil’s uneven recovery, Argentine GDP Latin American governments have started to outline the direction of fiscal policy from 2021, which support our relatively upbeat view on the prospects for Chile’s recovery. While parts of Brazil’s... 26th June 2020 · 6 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Still grappling with Covid, difficult recovery ahead Policymakers in the region have started to ease lockdowns but, with daily coronavirus cases still trending higher, restrictions are being lifted much more slowly than in most other countries. And... 25th June 2020 · 14 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Chilean QE, Peru’s crisis, Argentina’s debt snag Chile's central bank has given clear signs that it intends to launch a QE programme involving government bond purchases and, while longer-term yields have come down a long way already, there is room... 19th June 2020 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What next for monetary policy in Peru? Peru’s economy appears to be suffering one of the largest economic hits of any country from the coronavirus, which is likely to spur further policy easing. With short-term interest rates essentially... 18th June 2020 · 3 mins read
