Capital Daily Australia’s currency and bond yields likely to fall further While Australia’s currency and 10-year government bond yields have already dropped a long way this year, we think that they will fall further as a weak domestic economy prompts the RBA to loosen... 20th February 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt the rally in gold will last Given our view that investors’ expectations for further Fed rate cuts this year will be disappointed, we think that the rally in gold will end before long. 19th February 2020 · 7 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack Twin rally in equities and bonds unlikely to last Given our view that investors’ expectations for further Fed rate cuts this year will be disappointed, we think that the twin rally in US equity and bond markets will end before long. 18th February 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Equities likely to outperform bonds in Japan, despite recession We don’t expect Japan’s economy to bounce back quickly from Q4’s contraction. But even if we are right, bonds may still not do as well as equities. 17th February 2020 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Taking stock of recent moves in bonds & currencies We think that the recent rebound in the yields of many developed and emerging market government bonds will generally continue in the rest of this year, if the coronavirus epidemic is contained. By... 13th February 2020 · 4 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack Outlook for EM assets remains poor regardless of virus Even if the coronavirus outbreak in China is brought under control and the recent moves in equity and bond markets unwind, we think that most EM assets will not make significant gains this year. This... 11th February 2020 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update Outlook for EM Asian equities grim, regardless of virus We wouldn’t be surprised if the recent recovery of EM equities continued over the coming weeks, with the stock markets of those countries that fell furthest following the outbreak of the coronavirus... 6th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Rally in bonds may continue to unwind While the yields of most 10-year developed and emerging market government bonds have risen today, they are still substantially lower than prior to the coronavirus outbreak. Unless the fallout from the... 5th February 2020 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Bushfires & coronavirus to hit travel exports A combination of optimism about the prospect of a US-China trade deal and some better than expected economic data temporarily halted the decline in the Australian dollar towards the end of last year... 31st January 2020 · 10 mins read
Capital Daily Rally in gold may soon be over The rally in the price of gold of the past few days has coincided with the US 10-year TIPS yield breaking below zero for the first time since September. But unless the coronavirus outbreak becomes a... 28th January 2020 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Outlook Weak recovery likely to leave markets treading water After a stellar 2019 for most risky assets, we think that they will generally make only small gains in 2020. Admittedly, our forecasts assume that the effects of the coronavirus outbreak on markets... 27th January 2020 · 31 mins read
DM Valuations Monitor US dollar’s valuation won’t prevent it from rebounding While the dollar looks overvalued on most metrics, and has risen significantly over recent years, we don’t think that it is very overvalued. In our view, its valuation will not stop it from... 17th January 2020 · 8 mins read
Global Markets Update China’s equities & currency likely to underwhelm Optimism about a Phase One deal has driven the rally in Chinese equities and the renminbi since late 2019. But now that the deal has been signed, this ought to be fully discounted in the markets. And... 16th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Renminbi likely to weaken regardless of Phase One deal We think that today’s slight weakening of the renminbi against the US dollar is a sign of things to come. A lot of optimism about trade is already discounted in the markets and a Phase Two deal is... 15th January 2020 · 7 mins read
EM Valuations Monitor Valuations unlikely to continue to support EM equities We think that the returns from emerging market (EM) equities in 2020 won’t be anywhere as good as in 2019. While this view is partly premised on our forecast that earnings growth will generally be... 13th January 2020 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update Corporate bonds unlikely to make strong gains in 2020 Corporate bond markets in the US, the UK and the euro-zone have started 2020 on a strong footing, largely reflecting expectations that monetary policy there will remain accommodative for the... 10th January 2020 · 3 mins read
