Global Markets Update What QE would mean for Australia’s financial assets Against a backdrop of stubbornly-low inflation and rising unemployment, we now think that the RBA will launch quantitative easing (QE) in 2020. Here, we consider the implications for Australia’s... 7th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Trade deal unlikely to provide more upside for global equities Optimism about a trade deal between the US and China has given a lift to global equities. But with a lot of good news already discounted and global economic growth likely to remain sluggish, we... 5th November 2019 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Outlook Road ahead still looks bumpy for equities We have revised up our end-2019 forecasts for equities, which previously pointed to a large correction. But even without this big pothole, we continue to think that the road ahead for them will be... 31st October 2019 · 30 mins read
Capital Daily Market forces unlikely to turn up the heat on the BoJ We have been arguing for a while that the BoJ wouldn’t ease monetary policy in 2019 and 2020 due to concerns about the impact of negative interest rates on the health of financial institutions. And... 31st October 2019 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack IMF too optimistic on Australia and New Zealand In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF predicted Australia’s economy to expand by 1.7% in 2019 and by 2.3% in 2020. While the 2019 forecast is consistent with our own expectations, their... 31st October 2019 · 10 mins read
Global Markets Update Greece/Italy 10-yr spread will fall further in our view The yield of 10-year government bonds in Greece is now only slightly above that of 10-year government bonds in Italy. Given Italy’s comparatively poor growth and debt dynamics and greater political... 30th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Draghi leaves, but ultra-low bond yields are probably here to stay Mario Draghi’s swansong at today’s ECB meeting caused few ripples in the markets. Nonetheless, we think that the recent decisions taken under his leadership to cut rates and relaunch QE set the stage... 24th October 2019 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update E-Z equities will fall by less than US equities in our view Equities in the euro-zone have outperformed those in the US since early October. While we expect this trend to continue, we think that both will fall in the rest of this year, as global growth slows... 24th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Resilience of US equities and corporate bonds unlikely to last Equities and corporate bonds in the US have so far shrugged off the worrying signs for the global economy coming from lower oil prices. But we suspect that it won’t be long before slower global growth... 18th October 2019 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update Corporate bonds likely to outperform in the E-Z in 2020 We expect the rally in corporate bonds in the US, UK and euro-zone to unwind a bit in the rest of 2019 as global growth slows further. Next year, we think that corporate bonds in the US and the UK... 18th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily US sanctions only worsen Turkish lira’s already-dire prospects We think that today’s rebound in the lira won’t last, even if the US doesn’t ratchet up its sanctions on Turkey. 15th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Trade deal wouldn’t prevent equities from slumping in our view The UK and EU will try to strike a Brexit deal at a summit ending on Thursday US manufacturing output probably slumped in September We expect the Bank of Korea to cut its policy rate on Wednesday 11th October 2019 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update Portugal/Spain spread won’t fall further in our view The yield of 10-year government bonds in Portugal has fallen below that of their counterparts in Spain this week after Portugal’s Socialist Party retained power in Sunday’s legislative elections... 11th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update CAD resilience relative to AUD & NZD unlikely to last We expect appetite for risk and monetary policy to continue to be more important factors than commodity prices in determining the direction of the Aussie, Kiwi and Loonie. With that in mind, we think... 9th October 2019 · 3 mins read
DM Valuations Monitor Valuations of US equities likely to fall back We don’t expect the valuations of US equities to continue to rise over the rest of 2019. In fact, we expect the price/earnings (P/E) ratio of the S&P 500 to fall, and this is a key reason why we... 3rd October 2019 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily US corporate credit spreads likely to start widening again soon UK services PMI likely to have dropped back in September (09.30 BST) We think that euro-zone retail sales fell again in August (10.00 BST) US ISM non-manufacturing index probably edged down only... 2nd October 2019 · 6 mins read
