Global Markets Update UK assets have scope to rally in our view Despite the recent resurgence in uncertainty about the UK's future relationship with the EU, we think that it is still possible to make a positive case for UK assets. 11th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Taking stock of the underperformance of UK equities Despite a partial reversal today, MSCI’s UK Index has dramatically underperformed its equity indices for other major developed markets in recent months, falling as the latter have risen in local... 2nd September 2020 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt the euro will rally much further this year The recent resurgence of coronavirus cases in the euro-zone is probably one reason that the euro‘s rally against the US dollar has stalled. Although our baseline assumption is that the virus will... 27th August 2020 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Lockdown fatigue is making restrictions less effective In Australia, the lockdown in Melbourne in July was of similar intensity to the initial lockdown in April. Even so, retail sales only fell by 2% m/m in Victoria which still left them around 2% above... 27th August 2020 · 11 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack Recent outperformance of EM equities likely to continue We think that the recent outperformance in local-currency terms of the MSCI EM Index relative to the MSCI World Index of developed market (DM) equities will continue as the global economy recovers... 25th August 2020 · 7 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack We think further falls in real yields will help risky assets We forecast that developed market (DM) “risky” assets will make further ground over the next couple of years as the global economy continues to recover from the coronavirus shock and both monetary and... 21st August 2020 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update A closer look at Japanese and Swiss equities We suspect that the coronavirus-induced local-currency underperformance of MSCI’s Japan and Switzerland indices relative to its USA Index will unwind as the world slowly gets back to normal. 20th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Taking stock of the S&P 500’s rebound While the continued strength of the S&P 500, which at the time of writing is within a whisker of a new all-time high, is remarkable, we don’t think it necessarily reflects excessive optimism among... 13th August 2020 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update “Core” bond yields likely to remain even lower for longer Although we still think that “risky” assets will make further ground between now and the end of 2022, we no longer expect “safe” government bond yields to rise. We have also become more positive on... 12th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily US-China tensions likely to weigh on HK equities and renminbi We think that rising US-China tensions will cause equities in Hong Kong, which are down by close to 1% today, and the renminbi to end 2020 slightly weaker than their current levels. 10th August 2020 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Outlook We think the rally in risky assets will continue While risky assets have already rebounded a long way since their lows in March, we think that they will generally make further ground over the coming months, albeit at a slower pace. That view is... 7th August 2020 · 30 mins read
Global Markets Update Valuations not a major threat to equity rally in our view We don’t think that the valuations of equities in general are particularly stretched. In any case, valuations are like pieces of elastic – they can stretch a lot before they snap. In our view... 17th July 2020 · 4 mins read
EM Valuations Monitor High valuations unlikely to preclude further rally While the valuations of emerging market (EM) equities look high relative to their past levels we don’t think that this will necessarily prevent them from rising further, provided that the continued... 15th July 2020 · 7 mins read
DM Valuations Monitor Valuations unlikely to halt recovery in risky assets Despite talk of a bubble in “risky” assets, we do not think that their valuations are particularly stretched and will prevent them from gaining further ground over coming months. 10th July 2020 · 8 mins read
Global Markets Update US corporate spreads likely to narrow further News that a major US shale oil producer filed for bankruptcy last week has raised concerns about a new wave of coronavirus-induced corporate defaults. But even if the default rate does pick up in the... 7th July 2020 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Employment rebound points to further rally in US equities Today’s far-better-than-expected US non-farm payrolls has helped push the S&P 500 up by another 1%. And so long as the US economy continues to recover and the recent spike in coronavirus cases there... 2nd July 2020 · 6 mins read
