Capital Daily E-Z government bond yields unlikely to rebound anytime soon Chinese PMIs will probably show that the economy remains under pressure (Monday) RBA likely to cut its key policy rate by 25bp, to 0.75% (Tuesday) We expect a subdued 125,000 gain in US non-farm... 27th September 2019 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily PMIs point to further losses in euro-zone risky assets We think that the German Ifo Business Climate Indicator fell to a near-decade low (09.00 BST) UK Supreme Court to give its ruling on the prorogation of Parliament (10.30 BST) The central banks of... 23rd September 2019 · 5 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack Relentless rally in US equities unlikely to continue The strong performance of US equities this year has continued to be, at least in part, fuelled by expectations that growth in corporate earnings there will be much faster than elsewhere. Nonetheless... 20th September 2019 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update Another oil shock would probably see the dollar rise, not fall Although the oil price has fallen back since the weekend’s attacks on production facilities in Saudi Arabia, it could surge again if there are further strikes or if tensions in the Middle East... 19th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Potential winners and losers from an oil shock We think that Japan’s export values dropped by more than 10% y/y in August (08.50 BST) The FOMC will probably cut rates by 25bp for the second time in a row (19.00 BST) Brazil’s central bank is also... 17th September 2019 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update Is the ECB really to blame for euro weakness in 2019? Despite what Mr Trump’s tweet yesterday appears to suggest, we don’t think that the ECB is “trying, and succeeding, in depreciating the Euro”. And although we expect the euro to weaken further against... 13th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily ECB meeting doesn’t alter our already-bearish view of E-Z assets 12th September 2019 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update Implications of the M5S/PD coalition for Italian assets Italian assets have rallied since a new ruling coalition between the Five Star Movement (M5S) and the Democratic Party (PD) was formed. While we have revised our forecasts to reflect the reduced... 11th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Appetite for risk, rather than monetary policy, to drive dollar/euro UK MPs are likely to vote against PM Johnson’s second bid for a general election this evening Climbing food prices probably pushed China’s inflation higher in August (02.30 BST) We think that core... 9th September 2019 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Rally in gold may be reaching an end Germany’s industrial production is likely to have fallen further in July (07.00 BST) Russia’s central bank will probably cut its deposit rate by 25bp (11.30 BST) We estimate that US non-farm payrolls... 5th September 2019 · 6 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack EM financial markets not yet out of the woods The last few weeks have been kinder to EM financial markets than the start of August, when equities and currencies slumped as the US-China trade war ramped up again. Even so, neither has performed... 5th September 2019 · 8 mins read
Global Markets Update US yield curve points to impending stock market falls Yield curves have inverted in most advanced economies over the past couple of weeks, including in the US, Germany and the UK, sparking fears of an imminent global recession. While most advanced... 23rd August 2019 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Investors still look complacent on Italian political risk US FOMC minutes might give details about support for further easing (Wed. 19.00 BST) We think that the euro-zone composite PMI and consumer confidence index fell in August Account of last ECB meeting... 21st August 2019 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Germany’s fiscal policy unlikely to alter outlook for bonds The PBOC’s may loosen policy again as it launches a new loan prime rate Italy’s government is likely to lose a vote of no confidence on Tuesday Russia’s weak activity data in July probably pave the... 19th August 2019 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update Further downside ahead for EM currencies We think that emerging market (EM) currencies will continue to struggle over the rest of 2019 as the global economy remains weak for longer than investors anticipate, the trade war escalates further... 15th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Spill-overs from Argentina likely to be limited US administration delays new tariffs on many Chinese imports until 15th December Germany’s GDP probably contracted in Q2, and euro-zone growth may be revised down We think that UK CPI inflation... 13th August 2019 · 6 mins read
