Bonds & Equities Repeat of March panic unlikely, despite second waves While equity markets have fallen sharply over the past two weeks amid worries about the resurgence of new coronavirus cases in Europe and the US, there is little sign of the widespread market... 2nd November 2020 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack On the road to recovery As restrictions have been lifted in both countries, activity has rebounded. Admittedly, the second draconian lockdown in Victoria will hold back the recovery in GDP in Australia in Q3 and Q4. But we... 29th October 2020 · 11 mins read
Capital Daily A closer look at some of the recent trends in the US stock market We would not be surprised to see more bouts of weakness in the US stock market like the one at the start of this week with further fiscal support not imminent and the coronavirus continuing to spread... 27th October 2020 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update We doubt the 10-year Bund yield will fall further We are sticking to our forecast that the 10-year German government bond (Bund) yield will end this year at around -0.50%, even though it has recently fallen through this level following a renewed... 22nd October 2020 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We forecast that the 10-year Bund yield will end 2020 at -0.50% We are sticking to our forecast that the 10-year German Government (Bund) yield will end this year at -0.50%, even though it has recently fallen through this level following a renewed surge in COVID... 19th October 2020 · 5 mins read
EM Valuations Monitor EM sovereign $ bonds are not undervalued in our view While sovereign dollar bond spreads in many emerging markets (EMs) are quite high by past standards, we think this is largely justified by the deterioration in fiscal positions caused by the... 16th October 2020 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Spotlight on US equities as Q3 earnings season kicks off While the S&P 500 is now ~5% above its pre-pandemic level, we don’t think that this reflects excessive optimism among investors. One way to see this is to take a close look at analysts’ expectations... 14th October 2020 · 5 mins read
DM Valuations Monitor Risky assets are not significantly overvalued in our view While the S&P 500 is now above its pre-pandemic level, and US investment-grade corporate bond yields are even lower, we do not think that the valuations of “risky” assets in the US or elsewhere are... 13th October 2020 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Update Prospects are brighter for Kiwi than Aussie in our view 8th October 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Prospects are brighter for Kiwi than Aussie in our view We have revised up our already-bullish forecasts for the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar against the US dollar over the next few years, to reflect changes to our outlook for the Chinese... 8th October 2020 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Equities in EMEA and LatAm may claw back some lost ground We think that equities in EMEA and Latin America will claw back a bit of the ground they have lost relative to those in Emerging Asia recently, if progress is made in containing COVID-19 and the... 1st October 2020 · 7 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack We expect the renminbi and other Asian currencies to rise Despite the sell-off in most emerging market currencies over the past week, we continue to think that most will strengthen against the US dollar as the global economy recovers. In particular, we have... 24th September 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Real rate differentials will continue to weigh on the $ in our view We doubt that the recent pull-back in US inflation expectations will continue. This feeds into our view that the dollar is more likely to weaken than to strengthen over the next few years. 23rd September 2020 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update Risks to our equity forecasts from second waves While we continue to forecast that equity markets will make further ground in the next few years, the rapid increase in COVID-19 cases in Europe poses a downside risk to our projections. 21st September 2020 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Second waves and the risks to equity markets Our forecast that equity prices will make renewed headway in the next year or so is predicated on fresh outbreaks of COVID-19 remaining fairly localised. That assumption is being challenged by a... 18th September 2020 · 7 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack Rising Covid-19 cases pose a risk to our forecasts While we continue to forecast that developed market (DM) “risky” assets will make further ground over the next couple of years, the rapid increase in new coronavirus cases in Europe poses a downside... 16th September 2020 · 7 mins read
