Commodities Update Weak China demand won’t hold back oil prices Despite a rise in May, China’s PMIs still point to weak Chinese demand, which will continue to weigh on industrial metals prices. However, the war in Ukraine will remain the bigger driver of energy... 1st June 2022 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update We think the renminbi will fall further While it has rebounded over the past couple of weeks, we expect the renminbi to resume its fall against the US dollar as China’s economy underwhelms, interest rate differentials continue to shift... 1st June 2022 · 4 mins read
India Economics Focus Policymakers will turn to financial repression Policy tightening by the RBI is putting public finances stretched by the pandemic under further strain. While an increase in debt financing costs is inevitable, we expect the government and RBI to... 1st June 2022 · 10 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (May) India’s manufacturing PMI held steady in May, but there are further signs of price pressures becoming more intense last month. That supports our view that the RBI will frontload its policy tightening. 1st June 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (May) The Caixin manufacturing index published today rebounded last month thanks to the easing of virus containment measures. Taken together with the official survey, they suggest that a recovery in... 1st June 2022 · 3 mins read
India Data Response GDP (Q1) Indian GDP data for Q1 (Q4 of FY21/22) show that activity held up much better during the Omicron outbreak than during previous virus waves. The economy is well-placed for strong growth over 2022 as a... 31st May 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Official PMIs (May) The official PMIs add to broader evidence that activity has started to rebound as containment measures were rolled back. That said, the recovery is likely to remain tepid amid weak external demand and... 31st May 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market, Industrial Prod. & Retail Sales (Apr. 22) While employment recovered sharply in April and should soon reclaim its pre-pandemic level, the weakness in both goods production and goods consumption last month suggests that the economy’s Q2... 31st May 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Pakistan edges closer to IMF deal Talks between Pakistan and the IMF ended last week without agreement, but the subsequent decision by the government to cut back fuel subsidies has cleared one of the major hurdles towards a deal being... 30th May 2022 · 15 mins read
China Chart Pack Policymakers trying to revive property sales China’s beleaguered property developers may soon see some respite both from their inability to borrow at reasonable rates and from sliding property sales. Last week, PBOC Governor said that the... 30th May 2022 · 11 mins read
China Economics Weekly Goods are piling up at Chinese factories Soaring inventories of finished goods in China suggest that, contrary to most expectations, recent lockdowns are likely to prove disinflationary domestically. The glut of supply in China is likely to... 27th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Industrial Metals Update China’s steel price to fall, despite reduced output We expect China’s steel output to fall a little this year in line with government objectives. But we think that subdued demand, notably from the steel-intensive construction sector, will lead to lower... 27th May 2022 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly RBI spoiler alert, sugar export ban Comments from RBI Governor Das this week provided more support for our view that the RBI will frontload its monetary policy tightening with a 50bp hike in June, and that the Reserve Bank will continue... 27th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Singapore inflation worries, BBM taking the right steps Rising inflation and a strong economy have fuelled talk that monetary policy in Singapore will need to be tightened further. But we think the backdrop will have changed by the time the Monetary... 27th May 2022 · 7 mins read
India Chart Pack Shifting policy mix The RBI kicked off its tightening cycle this month with a 40bp hike to the repo rate (to 4.40%) in an unscheduled policy announcement. The minutes to that meeting show that several MPC members are... 27th May 2022 · 9 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Corporate tax shakeup, Shanghai parts shortages The government aims to lift the standard corporate tax rate while providing more generous tax breaks for capital spending. We doubt this will have a noticeable impact on business investment, not least... 27th May 2022 · 6 mins read
