Asia Chart Pack Thai economy to receive tourism boost After more than two years in the doldrums, Thailand’s tourism sector is finally showing signs of life. Arrivals in May reached 520,000 – a 77% increase from the previous month and 19% of the level... 27th June 2022 · 14 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Respite for BoJ doesn’t weaken case for a policy tweak Pressure on the Bank of Japan’s Yield Curve Control framework eased this week. On the campaign trail for the Upper House election, where inflation has emerged as a key concern, Prime Minister Kishida... 24th June 2022 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Singapore overheating fears, BSP forecast change There are growing signs that Singapore’s economy is overheating, with inflation now nearly double the target and wages increasing rapidly. However, we do not expect the MAS to respond by tightening... 24th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs stepping up to support currencies A handful of EM central banks have ramped up FX sales to provide support to weakening currencies over the past couple of months. And with inflation high and the US dollar likely to strengthen further... 24th June 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly A return to the streets, stimulus still being drip-fed Consumers have returned to the streets, with daily data showing that mobility is now largely back to normal. But it will be a while before they fully reopen their wallets. A lack of substantial policy... 24th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Prices (May 2022) While inflation didn’t rise any further in May, it will remain above the BoJ’s 2% target until early-2023, while underlying inflation will approach 2%. However, the Bank won’t respond with tighter... 24th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack High inflation to keep central banks in tightening mode Having surged in recent months, there are some tentative signs that EM inflation is nearing a peak. Our measure of aggregate EM inflation was steady at 7.0% y/y between April and May and some... 23rd June 2022 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Update Low inflation means BI is in little hurry to raise rates Bank Indonesia left interest rates unchanged again today, and the relative weakness of inflation means any tightening cycle is unlikely to be aggressive. We are maintaining our view the central bank... 23rd June 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update New rate forecasts following hawkish BSP comments The central bank in the Philippines today raised its policy rate by another 25bp (to 2.5%), and signalled that further tightening was likely. However, with inflation set to peak soon and headwinds to... 23rd June 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Flash PMIs (Jun. 2022) The PMIs suggest that supply shortages are still holding back manufacturing output and adding to price pressures. On a more upbeat note, the surveys also point to a strong pick-up in consumption as... 23rd June 2022 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update MPC minutes suggest more frontloading is in store The minutes of the MPC’s June meeting – in which the repo rate was hiked by 50bps to 4.90% – show that combatting inflation remains the priority and suggest that tightening will continue to be... 22nd June 2022 · 2 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Output to stagnate in 2022 despite latest bounce Our China Activity Proxy suggests that around half of the drop in output during the recent virus wave reversed in May. This recovery looks to have continued in June. But a lot of damage has already... 22nd June 2022 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack FX intervention from a position of strength The rupee has held up better than most EM currencies this month and the recent drop in FX reserves strongly indicates that this is in part because the RBI has once again ramped up its FX interventions... 22nd June 2022 · 9 mins read
Japan Chart Pack BoJ at the barricades While inflation is still far lower in Japan than in most places, rapid increases in the prices of some everyday purchases have made it a political focus. A Nikkei poll following the Bank of Japan’s... 21st June 2022 · 10 mins read
Capital Daily The case for a weaker renminbi remains intact Although we now think policy rates in China will not be lowered further, we still expect the renminbi to weaken to 7.0/US$ this year. Markets Drop-In (22 nd June, 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Join our Markets... 20th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Four reasons why we expect further falls in EM equities We think that stock markets in the emerging world will continue to struggle alongside their developed market peers over the next eighteen months or so, for four main reasons. Markets Drop-In (22 nd... 20th June 2022 · 4 mins read
