Energy Update LNG prices to remain historically high Europe’s heightened demand for LNG will be enough to keep prices high this year and into 2023, particularly as LNG supply growth will be fairly limited. 18th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook BoJ will reduce pressure on Yield Curve Control Supply shortages and continued virus caution will result in a weaker recovery in Japan than most anticipate. With wage growth sluggish too, the Bank of Japan won’t see a need to lift its policy rates... 18th July 2022 · 18 mins read
Bonds & Equities The threat to global markets from tweaking YCC again While a lot of attention has focussed naturally on the potential implications for the JGB market of a further tweaking of the Bank of Japan’s Yield Curve Control , the country’s huge investment in... 15th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Prospect of smaller budget deficits adds to BoJ’s woes With tax revenues soaring and pandemic-related expenditure set to be phased out, the budget deficit will shrink sharply over coming years. However, the resulting decline in bond issuance will make it... 15th July 2022 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Birth of the international rupee? We doubt the RBI’s new mechanism to allow international trade to be settled in rupees will see widespread use. One area where it may see some use is in trade with Russia - a rupee settlement mechanism... 15th July 2022 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China GDP (Q2), Activity & Spending (Jun.) The statistics bureau claim that output in Q2 was slightly higher than a year ago. That’s implausible even accounting for the strong rebound shown on the monthly data for June. 15th July 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Housing market jitters, demographic decline Homebuyers across China are banding together to pause mortgage payments in response to construction delays on presold apartments. For now these boycotts are small in scale. But they could become more... 15th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Questions (and answers) on the turmoil in Sri Lanka We held a Drop-In earlier today to discuss recent developments in Sri Lanka, where the economic and political crisis is going from bad to worse. This Update answers several of the questions that we... 14th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Tough times ahead as Pakistan agrees IMF deal The resumption of the loan deal between Pakistan and the IMF should put the economy back on a more secure footing and limit the biggest downside risks. But the cuts to government spending that the... 14th July 2022 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jun.) Wholesale price inflation in India dropped back in June from its record high, and now appears to have passed its peak. CPI inflation will also peak in the next few months, but in the near term it’s... 14th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank has breathing room to reconsider tolerance band The Bank of Japan will signal prolonged loose policy by forecasting below-target inflation over the next couple of years in next week’s “Outlook” report. Meanwhile, the fall in global bond yields in... 14th July 2022 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: more tightening ahead as BSP turns hawkish The decision by the central bank in the Philippines to raise its benchmark policy rate by a further 75bp (to 3.25%) at an unscheduled meeting reflects mounting concerns about inflation. Further hikes... 14th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update MAS tightens even as economy stagnates The city-state’s economy unexpectedly stagnated in the second quarter but this didn’t prevent the MAS from tightening monetary policy today in a bid to tackle high inflation. While we expect output to... 14th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We think Treasury yields will rise again even if inflation eases While we expect upcoming US CPI reports to be more encouraging than June’s one, we still think that the yield of 10-year Treasuries will rise further over the remainder of this year. 13th July 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update China’s commodities imports may be close to a trough Commodity import volumes were generally weak in June. We think some of this reflects the lingering impact of lockdowns on demand, but it also points to subdued activity in heavy industry and... 13th July 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Trade (Jun.) Import volumes fell to a three-year low last month, pointing to continued weakness in China’s construction sector. Exports rebounded strongly as shipping bottlenecks eased. But we think this may be... 13th July 2022 · 3 mins read
