Asia Economics Update Taiwan: tightening cycle to be gradual Taiwan’s central bank today raised interest rates by 12.5bp (to 1.50%) and appeared to indicate that rates would be raised further this year due to concerns about rising inflation. But we think the... 16th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan External Trade (May 2022) Export volumes recovered a bit in May, but they are likely to stay weak in the near term until supply shortages dissipate and allow exporting automakers to ramp up production again. Markets Drop-In... 16th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update How changes to yield curve control might affect JGBs We think the Bank of Japan will widen the tolerance band around its 10-year Japanese Government Bond yield target, and that the yield will consequently rise by around 25bp. But there is a clear risk... 15th June 2022 · 4 mins read
China Data Response China Activity & Spending (May) The May data suggest that a post-lockdown recovery got underway across most parts of the economy last month. It is likely to have progressed further in June. But the recent resurgence in infections in... 15th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Capital outflows from EMs appear to have eased over the past month, but rapidly tightening external financing conditions mean that this won’t last for long. Large outflows already seem to have pushed... 14th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: assessing the impact of the truckers strike A strike by truck drivers in Korea is causing significant disruption. Prolonged industrial action could add to strains on global supply chains and would lower Korean GDP. Even if the strike ends soon... 14th June 2022 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (May) Indian wholesale price inflation climbed to another historic high in May. The rise in food prices in particular suggests that some of the upside risks to the inflation picture we have been flagging... 14th June 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (May) India’s consumer price inflation dropped back in May, but much of that was due to base effects. We expect inflation to resume rising from June, prompting the RBI to continue frontloading policy... 13th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BSP and BoT to go slow on rate hikes The BSP and the BoT this week signalled that they are likely to raise interest rates over the coming months. But in both cases we think the pace of tightening will be gradual. 10th June 2022 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Ant rehabilitation or tech rectification? If the Ant IPO is back on, as some are reporting, this is less likely to signal that the regulatory crackdown is being rolled back than that regulators feel they have successfully brought the formerly... 10th June 2022 · 6 mins read
China Data Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (May) Credit growth was stronger than expected last month. It is likely to accelerate following the clear signal in late May that policymakers want banks to step up lending. More policy easing is likely... 10th June 2022 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Food inflation, new MSPs, RBI policy The Reserve Bank stepped up the pace of tightening by hiking the repo rate by 50bps to 4.90% this week. It also upped its inflation forecasts substantially, primarily due to food inflation. We agree... 10th June 2022 · 5 mins read
China Data Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (May) Consumer price inflation was unchanged last month and remains well below the government’s target of 3%, while producer price inflation dropped to its lowest in a year. As such, inflation is unlikely... 10th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Jump in working hours points to strong Q2 rebound The recent jump in overtime hours largely reflects severe labour shortages at hotels and restaurants rather than any surge in demand. However, with overall working hours on track for a strong rise... 10th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Weak wage growth to preclude tighter policy While Japanese inflation will stay just above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target over the coming months, the Bank will not tighten policy at either the short or long end of the yield curve while wage... 10th June 2022 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Update Four key points on the renminbi’s spillovers to EM currencies While the spillovers from the renminbi’s depreciation against the US dollar over the past two months have in some ways been similar to previous periods of renminbi weakness, the impact on other... 9th June 2022 · 4 mins read
