China Economics Weekly Consumer demand push revived, COVID debacle, chips The Central Economic Work Conference ended today with a pledge of more support for consumers and property developers. That’s the second major policy document with a focus on consumers this week. Might... 16th December 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Huge risks associated with China reopening The raft of inflation data and central bank policy decisions were key drivers of prices this week, but to some extent China stole the show. We now think that a dismantling of the zero-COVID policy is... 16th December 2022 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Inventory build-up points to looming recession Surges in manufacturing inventories in the BoJ’s Tankan have a strong record in providing early warnings of economic downturns. The strong rise in inventories over the last couple of quarters... 16th December 2022 · 5 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Flash PMIs (Dec. 22) December’s flash PMIs point to further annual contractions in industrial output but suggest services spending rebounded towards year-end. 16th December 2022 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Lying flat, getting steam-rollered China’s authorities appear to have given up trying to manage the spread of COVID-19. If we’re right, the surge in infections underway in Beijing will spread rapidly across the country. As is happening... 15th December 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The World in 2023: What to watch for in EMs EMs will experience one of the broadest slowdowns in GDP growth in 2023 since the 1990s. China is one of the few places where growth will accelerate next year, but its move away from zero-COVID will... 15th December 2022 · 4 mins read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Nov.) The disruption from virus outbreaks intensified in November, with retail sales, investment spending and industrial output all contracting by the most month-on-month since the Shanghai lockdown. Early... 15th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Nov. 22) With employment jumping in November, the labour market is still tightening, The upshot is that the RBA will hike rates more sharply than most anticipate over the coming months 15th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan External Trade (Nov. 2022) While the trade deficit narrowed sharply in November, most of that reflects falling import prices. Export volumes seem to hold up well but with the global downturn weighing on external demand next... 15th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Nov. 22) 15th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q3 22) The huge jump in Q3 GDP will prompt the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to press ahead with another 75bp hike in February, adding to our conviction that a recession lies ahead. 14th December 2022 · 2 mins read
