Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth hit by China lockdown and war in Ukraine Recently-released Q1 GDP figures showed that most EMs performed well at the start of this year, but headwinds are growing. Lockdowns are dealing a heavy blow to China’s economy and spillovers from the... 26th May 2022 · 2 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Outbreaks knock output back to 2019 levels Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that all of China’s pandemic-era growth has been reversed by recent lockdowns, with output in April no higher than during 2019. Activity should start to rebound... 26th May 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Policy easing stepping up The State Council has announced support measures totalling 1.7% of GDP. Most of this comprises incentives for banks to lend to struggling firms, rather than fiscal stimulus. The People’s Bank has also... 24th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Dovish Bank Indonesia in no hurry to raise rates Bank Indonesia left interest rates unchanged today and the dovish tone from the press conference suggests the central bank is in no rush to tighten policy. We are maintaining our view the central bank... 24th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Flash PMIs (May 2022) While the flash manufacturing PMI was little changed in May, the details suggest that supply shortages worsened yet again, weighing on output and lifting prices. 24th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Asia joins the EM rate hike club Upside surprises to inflation coupled with a hawkish Fed have prompted aggressive monetary policy responses by central banks across the emerging world over the past month. Policymakers in Czechia... 23rd May 2022 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan: Further tightening needed, as IMF talks begin High inflation and the fall in the currency were the two key factors behind the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) decision to raise interest rates by a further 150bp today. More tightening looks... 23rd May 2022 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update A small helping hand for households Measures unveiled by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman over the weekend including a cut to excise duties on petrol and ramping up of fertiliser subsidies should offer a small reprieve to households... 23rd May 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Tweak to Yield Curve Control still on the table The Bank of Japan’s attempt to relieve pressure on the Yield Curve Control framework by offering to buy an unlimited amount of 10-year Japanese government bonds (JGBs) at yields of 0.25% for as long... 23rd May 2022 · 10 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia late to tightening but won’t have to go far Central banks in India, the Philippines and Malaysia have all raised interest rates for the first time this cycle in recent weeks, and we expect further hikes next week in Indonesia, Korea and... 20th May 2022 · 9 mins read
China Economics Weekly How quickly can activity rebound? China’s previous COVID outbreaks offer a few clues to how quickly the economy will rebound this time. Even if further large-scale lockdowns are avoided, activity is unlikely to have recovered in full... 20th May 2022 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Heatwave damage, MPC minutes, WPI surge The government’s decision to restrict exports of wheat following heavy damage to crops from the heatwave will have limited impact on the trade balance and inflation. The bigger worry is that the... 20th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan to outperform as cost of living rising less sharply GDP shrank yet again in Q1 as the Omicron wave brought the recovery in consumption to a halt. However, services spending was more resilient than we had anticipated and there are good reasons to think... 20th May 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update A helping hand for the housing market Today’s reduction to the five-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) should help drive a revival in housing sales, which have gone from bad to worse recently. But the lack of any reduction to the one-year LPR... 20th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Prices (Apr. 2022) Inflation rose above the Bank of Japan's 2% inflation target for the first time since 2008 and we expect underlying inflation to approach 2% later this year, but this won't prompt the Bank to tighten... 20th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Weaker yen won’t provide a big boost to net exports With Japan’s terms of trade set to improve only modestly and interest rates differentials moving further against the yen, we expect the exchange rate to fall to 140 against the dollar by year-end. But... 19th May 2022 · 2 mins read
