Japan Data Response Japan External Trade (Apr. 2022) Export volumes fell in April, and they are likely to remain subdued over the coming months until supply shortages dissipate and allow exporters to make up for lost ground. 19th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Net capital outflows from EMs appear to have picked up over the past few weeks amid the general risk-off mood in global financial markets. This is a worrying development for countries with fragile... 18th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Focus What would tighter monetary policy mean for Japan? We don’t expect the Bank of Japan to tighten monetary policy meaningfully but, with inflation about to breach 2%, what if we are wrong? The direct impact of higher interest rates on the corporate... 18th May 2022 · 15 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan GDP (Q1 2022 Preliminary) Japan’s economy only contracted slightly in Q1 as consumption held up well despite prolonged restrictions during the Omicron wave. But while the economy will bounce back this quarter, we think Japan’s... 18th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Asia to remain inflation outlier Despite surging global food and fuel prices, inflation across most of Emerging Asia looks set to remain relatively low. This is the key reason why tightening cycles in the region will be much more... 17th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Inflation surge not just a food and energy story Higher food and energy prices go some way to explaining the rise in headline inflation rates across the emerging world, but this is only part of the story. Core inflation has also jumped in many EMs... 16th May 2022 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Activity & Spending (Apr.) The April data were even weaker than expected and are consistent with a sharp contraction in economic activity. Provided that the virus situation continues to improve, the economy should begin to... 16th May 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Testing, testing, testing The outlines of a new, more stringent zero-COVID approach are emerging in China, in the wake of the failure to control infections in Shanghai. If successful, there should be less supply chain... 13th May 2022 · 6 mins read
China Data Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Apr.) Lending was much weaker than expected last month as lockdowns weighed on credit demand. This should nudge the PBOC to announce further easing measures soon. But the central bank continues to signal a... 13th May 2022 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly G-SAP redux? The recent jump in bond yields is reportedly causing consternation among policymakers. The big worry is the impact that higher bond yields would have on the trajectory of India’s public debt. This... 13th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Virus fears waning, Bank of Japan plans could change We doubt that the spike in mobility during Golden Week is a harbinger of a rapid rebound in consumer spending. Mounting concerns about rising living costs and lingering virus fears among the elderly... 13th May 2022 · 7 mins read
China Economics Update No good options Officials are struggling to balance a raft of conflicting goals spanning everything from GDP growth, zero-COVID, exchange rate stability, deleveraging and regulation. We don’t expect much compromise... 12th May 2022 · 6 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) & Industrial Production (Mar.) Headline consumer price inflation surged beyond even our above-consensus forecast to an eight-year high of 7.8% y/y in April. Given that it is likely to rise even higher over the coming months... 12th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Three positive stories from frontier markets There has been plenty of doom and gloom surrounding the outlook for frontier economies over recent months, particularly Sri Lanka and Tunisia. But there are some places where we hold more upbeat views... 12th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Philippines GDP (Q1) The Philippines economy beat expectations again in Q1 and should have gained further momentum in recent months. But we suspect the strength of the recovery will begin to wane soon. China Drop-In (12... 12th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus EM sovereign debt: where do the risks lie? The strong dollar and spill-overs from the war in Ukraine have caused sovereign debt risks to escalate in some frontier markets. But most large EMs have far stronger public sector balance sheets... 11th May 2022 · 14 mins read
