India Data Response Wholesale Prices (May) Indian wholesale price inflation climbed to another historic high in May. The rise in food prices in particular suggests that some of the upside risks to the inflation picture we have been flagging... 14th June 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (May) India’s consumer price inflation dropped back in May, but much of that was due to base effects. We expect inflation to resume rising from June, prompting the RBI to continue frontloading policy... 13th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BSP and BoT to go slow on rate hikes The BSP and the BoT this week signalled that they are likely to raise interest rates over the coming months. But in both cases we think the pace of tightening will be gradual. 10th June 2022 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Ant rehabilitation or tech rectification? If the Ant IPO is back on, as some are reporting, this is less likely to signal that the regulatory crackdown is being rolled back than that regulators feel they have successfully brought the formerly... 10th June 2022 · 6 mins read
China Data Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (May) Credit growth was stronger than expected last month. It is likely to accelerate following the clear signal in late May that policymakers want banks to step up lending. More policy easing is likely... 10th June 2022 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Food inflation, new MSPs, RBI policy The Reserve Bank stepped up the pace of tightening by hiking the repo rate by 50bps to 4.90% this week. It also upped its inflation forecasts substantially, primarily due to food inflation. We agree... 10th June 2022 · 5 mins read
China Data Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (May) Consumer price inflation was unchanged last month and remains well below the government’s target of 3%, while producer price inflation dropped to its lowest in a year. As such, inflation is unlikely... 10th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Jump in working hours points to strong Q2 rebound The recent jump in overtime hours largely reflects severe labour shortages at hotels and restaurants rather than any surge in demand. However, with overall working hours on track for a strong rise... 10th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Weak wage growth to preclude tighter policy While Japanese inflation will stay just above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target over the coming months, the Bank will not tighten policy at either the short or long end of the yield curve while wage... 10th June 2022 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Update Four key points on the renminbi’s spillovers to EM currencies While the spillovers from the renminbi’s depreciation against the US dollar over the past two months have in some ways been similar to previous periods of renminbi weakness, the impact on other... 9th June 2022 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update What impact would removal of Trump tariffs have? Cancelling all of the Trump tariffs on China would give a smaller direct boost to China’s export sector than many might think. More important would be the signal a unilateral rollback would give that... 9th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update China’s import demand to remain subdued Commodity import volumes revived a little in May, perhaps as virus-related restrictions started to ease. Although demand should pick up in tandem with activity as major cities re-open, we think that... 9th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Bank of Korea to cut rates next year as headwinds mount The Bank of Korea (BoK) is almost certain to hike interest rates further this year, but with financial risks receding, economic growth likely to slow and inflation set to fall back to target by early... 9th June 2022 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Steeper interest rate hikes and larger house price falls Hawkish shifts by the RBA and the RBNZ in recent weeks have prompted us to forecast an even more aggressive hiking cycle by both central banks in the months ahead. Both central banks hiked rates by... 9th June 2022 · 11 mins read
China Data Response China Trade (May) Export and import y/y growth picked up last month. In volume terms, exports rebounded while imports were largely unchanged. We think outbound shipments will soften again before long amid growing... 9th June 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Why won’t the government help households? The view that policy support is best directed towards investment rather than consumption is deeply rooted in China. A few token consumer voucher schemes aside, this doesn’t seem to be changing. 8th June 2022 · 5 mins read
