China Economics Update What impact would removal of Trump tariffs have? Cancelling all of the Trump tariffs on China would give a smaller direct boost to China’s export sector than many might think. More important would be the signal a unilateral rollback would give that... 9th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update China’s import demand to remain subdued Commodity import volumes revived a little in May, perhaps as virus-related restrictions started to ease. Although demand should pick up in tandem with activity as major cities re-open, we think that... 9th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Bank of Korea to cut rates next year as headwinds mount The Bank of Korea (BoK) is almost certain to hike interest rates further this year, but with financial risks receding, economic growth likely to slow and inflation set to fall back to target by early... 9th June 2022 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Steeper interest rate hikes and larger house price falls Hawkish shifts by the RBA and the RBNZ in recent weeks have prompted us to forecast an even more aggressive hiking cycle by both central banks in the months ahead. Both central banks hiked rates by... 9th June 2022 · 11 mins read
China Data Response China Trade (May) Export and import y/y growth picked up last month. In volume terms, exports rebounded while imports were largely unchanged. We think outbound shipments will soften again before long amid growing... 9th June 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Why won’t the government help households? The view that policy support is best directed towards investment rather than consumption is deeply rooted in China. A few token consumer voucher schemes aside, this doesn’t seem to be changing. 8th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Thailand: rates set to rise, but tightening to be gradual The Bank of Thailand left interest rates unchanged today, but hawkish comments from the central bank suggest that rates will be raised sooner than we had previously expected. 8th June 2022 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update RBI tightening cycle has further to run The RBI hiked the repo rate by 50bps to 4.90% today, as we had anticipated, and made substantial upward revisions to its near-term inflation forecasts. Further tightening will follow over the coming... 8th June 2022 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Drop in inflation in May will prove fleeting Headline CPI inflation in India is likely to have dropped in May, primarily due to base effects. But beyond May, we expect inflation to resume rising, reaching over 8% by August. The RBI is likely to... 7th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Are the demographic headwinds strengthening? A falling fertility rate and declining employment among retirement age workers pose downside risks to our long-term forecasts for Japan’s labour force and GDP growth. However, with the female... 7th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Wages & Household Spending (Apr. 22) While regular wage growth is approaching its pre-pandemic peak, it won’t reach the 3% the Bank of Japan is aiming for anytime soon. More positively though, with overtime working hours reaching levels... 7th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Rising prices won’t prevent solid rebound in Q2 The renewed drop in industrial production and the weakness in retail sales volumes in April has raised concerns that Japan’s recovery will continue to disappoint. However, with consumer prices rising... 3rd June 2022 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Resilient economy reinforces case for frontloading GDP data for Q1 released this week showed that the economy weathered the Omicron wave pretty well, and the timelier data suggest a solid performance so far in Q2. That said, there were also further... 3rd June 2022 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Show us the money The State Council has expanded on its call for policy support for the economy to be stepped up. But nothing has been done about the funding strains faced by local governments who bear much of the... 2nd June 2022 · 8 mins read
RBI Watch MPC to frontload monetary tightening We think the MPC will follow its off-cycle rate hike last month with a 50bp hike to the repo rate (to 4.90%) at the conclusion of its upcoming meeting on Wednesday 8 th June. Beyond next week, the... 2nd June 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A modest recovery in EM manufacturing The S&P Global EM Manufacturing PMI for May suggests that the easing of virus-related disruptions in China supported a small rebound in EM manufacturing last month, but the sector remains very weak... 1st June 2022 · 2 mins read
