Europe Economics Update Italian prospects remain grim Recent euro-zone developments may have brought Italy back from the brink again. But Italy will still need years of financial assistance from the rest of the region and to go through years of severe... 7th December 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Financing risk, not Islamist win, is the greatest threat in Egypt Although the official results from Egypt’s first round of elections have not yet been released, it is almost certain that the Freedom and Justice party (the political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood)... 1st December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) The latest monetary data have revealed rising strains in the banking sector as the euro-zone’s debt crisis has deepened. While the ECB has continued to provide banks with liquidity, it has stopped... 28th November 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian banks tighten the screw The relative resilience of Brazilian credit growth when measured in annual terms masks the fact that lending growth has slowed fairly sharply when measured on a month-on-month basis. Industry has... 24th November 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Western support for CEE banks starts to wane Austria’s decision to restrict lending by its banks to subsidiaries in Emerging Europe reflects a broader shift in sentiment on the part of Western banks away from supporting units further east. This... 23rd November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Little cause for cheer on Northern Rock sale The unprofitable sale of Northern Rock should dent any hopes that the Government will be able to sell profitably its remaining stakes in the other nationalised banks in the near future. 17th November 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update UAE banks better placed to weather a fresh global crisis The UAE’s banks are better prepared to face the fallout of the euro-zone debt crisis than they were during the financial crisis of 2008. However, lending to the private sector is unlikely to return to... 17th November 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Raising deposit rates is not enough to support the Egyptian pound The decision by privately-owned banks in Egypt to raise deposit rates by around two percentage points may slow the rate of dollarization of resident accounts, which could help the central bank in its... 15th November 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) The growth rate of money has levelled out over the past couple of months, with our reconstructed measure of the broad M3 aggregate expanding by about 5% over the past year. 14th November 2011 · 1 min read
China Data Response Lending and Broad Money (Oct.) Today’s data show that net new lending rebounded last month, while growth in broad money fell slightly. We expect credit controls to be eased officially soon and therefore see lending picking up... 11th November 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Banking sector risks revisited Fears are mounting over the exposure of Emerging Europe’s banks to the deepening crisis in the euro-zone. Our view remains unchanged from that which we put forward earlier this year: the big risk to... 10th November 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Growing stresses in the banking system This week’s surge in Italian government bond yields has catapulted the euro-zone debt crisis into a dangerous new phase. Italy’s problems pose a far greater threat to the region’s banks than those of... 10th November 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: living on borrowed time We estimate that the Central Bank of Egypt has sufficient FX reserves to maintain its current rate of intervention in the foreign exchange markets until early next year. Assuming this month’s... 8th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek referendum throws whole rescue plan into doubt The Greek government’s surprise decision to hold a referendum on the latest euro-zone rescue package has clearly increased the risks of a bigger and disorderly default on Greek debt and, ultimately... 1st November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) The pronounced weakness of the latest broad money and lending data suggests that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) was right to restart QE in October. However, the MPC seems to be getting less ‘bang... 31st October 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly How vulnerable is Asia to another financial crisis? Despite the deal agreed by European leaders last week, we are far from sanguine about prospects for the euro-zone and expect further turmoil in global financial markets. In the event of another... 31st October 2011 · 1 min read
