Europe Economics Update German court ruling points to troubles ahead Today’s ruling by the German Constitutional Court that bail-outs already undertaken by EU authorities were not unlawful might come as a relief to highly indebted euro-zone governments. But its... 8th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Greece at risk of an imminent default? In the near term, Greece may continue to receive EU/IMF support and grudgingly meet the terms of its bail-out, despite the ongoing problems surrounding the second rescue package. But it is virtually... 8th September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) Monetary indicators continue to suggest that underlying inflationary pressures are pretty weak. Meanwhile, firms have continued to pay down their debts, suggesting that business investment is unlikely... 31st August 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Jun.) June's rebound in retail sales was driven by sharply higher auto sales, thanks to earlier-than-normal and more generous price incentives. Since then, however, auto sales have fallen back and other... 24th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will retail spending prove resilient again? One puzzle during the recent recession was the way in which retail sales held up so well relative to overall consumer spending. But we find it hard to justify why retail should continue to prove this... 23rd August 2011 · 1 min read
China Data Response Lending and Broad Money (July) Today’s data show that both net new lending and growth in broad money fell last month. These figures provide further support for our view that the balance of concerns in China is soon likely to shift... 13th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Four reasons why gilt yields will stay low Gilt yields have fallen sharply since February, with 10-year yields now equal to the 50-year or so low of 2.75% that they reached in March 2009. But there are good reasons to think that gilt yields... 3rd August 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Earnings fall back even as hours rise Salaries in Japan fell unexpectedly in June, as mid-year bonuses and overtime pay was cut. But as hours worked increase and employment gradually picks up, it seems more workers are working longer for... 3rd August 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What would a US default mean for Asia? Policymakers across the region are rightly concerned about the potential consequences of a debt crisis in the US. We believe that the impact on Emerging Asia’s economies of a one or two notch... 2nd August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) Broad money and lending growth remained exceptionally weak in July, suggesting that nominal GDP growth is likely to ease back in time. The case for more quantitative easing is getting stronger. 30th July 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) The latest ECB Bank lending survey suggests that conditions in the euro-zone banking sector remain far from normal, supporting our view that domestic demand in the region as a whole will struggle to... 29th July 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Is Latin America wasting its commodities windfall? The fact that Latin America is spending its windfall from higher commodity prices is good news for the global economy, but carries significant risks for the region itself. In the near term the big... 29th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Confidence (Jul.) The slight rebound in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence, to 59.5 in July from 57.6 in June, is a bit bizarre given that all the other measures of confidence have recently fallen... 27th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update What if the US defaults? We still think that the US government is unlikely to default on its debt. But if it did, the implications would potentially be far more serious than those that would follow a one or two notch... 26th July 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish growth set to slow sharply Today’s decision by the Central Bank of Turkey to suspend its daily purchases of US$ should help to stabilise the lira in the very near term. But it does not tackle the underlying concern, namely... 26th July 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (May) May's retail sales are another reminder of the negative effects that high energy and rising food prices are having on discretionary consumer spending. Despite the preliminary data showing strong... 23rd July 2011 · 1 min read
