Emerging Europe Economics Update Banks edging back to health, but beware of the hidden risks The past few months have brought further signs that, after a torrid couple of years, the region’s banking sector is starting to find its feet. But credit growth is likely to remain subdued across most... 6th June 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Twin threats to banks' income It's ironic that in the same week that the movie of the book "Too Big To Fail" was first premiered on American television, it was revealed that the net income of US banks was higher in the first... 30th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Would banks cope with a Greek debt "reprofiling"? Some form of Greek debt rescheduling would certainly have rather less severe implications for the euro-zone’s banks than a “hard” default. Nonetheless, were the process badly handled, it could still... 26th May 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers' Survey & Bank Lending (Apr.) Respondents to Japan’s Economy Watchers Survey are not as pessimistic about the outlook as they were immediately after the disaster in March, but confidence is still relatively low and there is no... 12th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greek default worries deepen Last week was another bad one for Greece. Markets are now increasingly convinced not only that Greece will default, but that it may happen before the European Stabilisation Mechanism comes into... 2nd May 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update People's Bank still intervening heavily China may have recorded a trade deficit last quarter but the pace of its intervention to hold down the renminbi barely slowed. Meanwhile, a rebound in lending last month is consistent with our view... 14th April 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers' Survey (Mar.) Today’s retail sales and unemployment data for February were better than expected and small business confidence was high in early March. These figures pre-date the full impact of the earthquake that... 8th April 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Banks a heavy weight around Ireland's neck The results of the latest round of Irish bank stress tests will almost undoubtedly make pretty grim reading and we doubt that they will draw a line under the banking crisis. Accordingly, concerns... 31st March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Credit Conditions (Q1), Cons. Conf. (Mar.), Pay settlements (Feb.) The Bank of England’s latest survey suggested that credit conditions remain pretty tight, suggesting that a significant pick-up in bank lending still looks unlikely any time soon. Meanwhile, there was... 31st March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) The latest euro-zone money and credit data confirm that underlying inflationary pressures remain reasonably subdued. While the ECB appears intent on raising interest rates next month, the money data... 25th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update New European bank stress tests still not stressful enough Details on the methodology and assumptions behind this year’s European bank stress tests provide little hope that the results will significantly ease concerns about the region’s banks. This supports... 21st March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Greece still facing a funding crisis? Recent financial market developments suggest that Greece is as far away as ever from convincing investors that it can get its public finances on a stable footing without defaulting. What’s more, there... 9th March 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Feb.) The current conditions component of February's Economy Watchers Survey (EWS) was even more upbeat than the improvement signalled by the outlook in the previous month. However, the forward-looking... 8th March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update A strong recovery needs faster money growth The Monetary Policy Committee has suggested that nominal GDP growth can be sustained even if money growth remains weak. This might happen to some extent. But the big picture is that money growth at... 28th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Funding problems to keep lid on bank lending The Chancellor is upping the pressure on banks to lend more. But with banks’ funding problems really coming home to roost this year, he might soon feel like he is banging his head against a brick wall... 14th February 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update January loan surge tests new credit policy January’s consumer price inflation figures will be the most closely-watched of China’s upcoming batch of data. But the lending data will also be worth a look for what they tell us about the government... 11th February 2011 · 1 min read
