UK Economics Chart Pack Falling real pay taking its toll The continued squeeze on real pay suggests that consumer spending will keep falling for some time. Last week we revised down our forecast for GDP growth this year from 1.5% to 1% and now expect... 22nd July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales & Public Finances (Jun.) The official measure of retail sales rebounded a bit in June, but the underlying trend remains broadly flat. Meanwhile, “Plan A” still seems to be struggling to deliver the planned falls in public... 22nd July 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How a banking crisis could sink the euro A loss of confidence in the banking system of a euro member country could potentially result in all of that country’s bank liabilities effectively ending up as the liabilities of the ECB. The sheer... 19th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly How exposed is the US to European debt defaults? The risk that the US government will default on some of its debt obligations lingered last week as the stand-off over the raising of the debt ceiling appeared to intensify. At the same time, it has... 19th July 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Would a US sovereign credit downgrade rattle Treasuries? Moody’s has become the second major rating agency to put the long-term credit rating of the US government on review for possible downgrade. We think investors in the Treasury market were right to... 15th July 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What was behind the lending rebound? Last month’s lending rebound was driven by short-term credit and may have done more for asset markets than the economy. Medium and long-term lending increased by the least since 2008. 13th July 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: credit where credit’s due? The debate about whether or not Brazil is in the midst of a consumer credit bubble has reached fever pitch over the past few days. Our view is that the current pace of credit growth is unsustainable... 13th July 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Can Emerging Europe stay under the radar? In contrast to governments in the euro-zone’s periphery, the economies of Emerging Europe are not facing a solvency crisis. However, large external financing requirements mean the region is vulnerable... 13th July 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey & Bank Lending (Jun.) The Economy Watchers Survey bounced back in June, supporting other evidence that the economy continued to rebound through the end of Q2. The outlook component also improved but suggests the recovery... 9th July 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Capital flows to emerging markets: an accident waiting to happen? Fears of a widespread bubble in emerging markets look overdone, but there are growing signs that rapid capital inflows are stoking problems in several countries. We think the biggest risks lie in... 2nd July 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) The latest data show that euro-zone money and credit growth remain subdued, supporting the view that CPI inflation will fall below the ECB’s target as the boost from energy and food subsides. While a... 1st July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Credit Conditions (Q2), Cons. Conf. (Jun.) & Pay settlements (May) There was little in the Bank of England’s latest Credit Conditions Survey to suggest that bank lending is set to pick up any time soon. 1st July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) There are still no signs of any pick-up in broad money or lending growth, suggesting that the medium-term outlook for both economic growth and inflation remains pretty weak. 30th June 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Weaker lending adds to growth concerns Weakening credit growth and a slowing economy present a policy dilemma when inflation is still high. Our view remains that inflation will taper off in the second half of the year and that growth will... 14th June 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank lending on course to rise again Overall bank lending is likely to increase over the rest of the year, but this would not necessarily be a sign of underlying economic strength. We expect business loan demand to rise as the weak... 14th June 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Current account, bank lending (Apr.) & EWS (May) Japan’s current account surplus fell further in April, supporting what we already knew about the effect of the disaster on trade. Survey-based evidence suggests things are turning around with... 8th June 2011 · 1 min read
