Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Tight labour market to keep RBA on the sidelines Following yesterday's blockbuster jobs report, financial markets have come around to our view that the Reserve Bank of Australia won't loosen policy before the first half of next year. That's a stark... 18th October 2024 · 4 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) Recessions fears continue to go unfounded, with the labour market still in good health after the strong September employment report. Prospects for October look weaker due to recent temporary... 17th October 2024 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Sep. 2024) With the labour market running red hot, the Reserve Bank of Australia won’t cut rates before the first half of next year. 17th October 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Aug. 2024) The further fall in wage growth in August, together with signs that the labour market continued to loosen gradually, adds further support to the widespread expectation that the Bank of England will... 15th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly October meeting will be a close call The stronger labour market data makes the Bank of Canada’s decision in October a close call but, with upside inflation risks fading, and demand still very weak, we think t he Bank will want to bring... 11th October 2024 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank’s surveys imply GDP growth will remain weak The key activity and labour market indicators in the Bank of Canada’s surveys did not deteriorate last quarter, but they remain consistent with weak GDP growth, rather than the pick-up the Bank is... 11th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Kenya rate cuts, SA visa reforms Continued disinflation alongside an improved external environment mean that the 75bp interest rate cut delivered by Kenya’s central bank is likely to be followed up by further monetary loosening over... 11th October 2024 · 6 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Sep. 2024) The stronger rise in employment and fall in the unemployment rate in September were largely due to a seasonal quirk, as the weak summer jobs market meant that fewer young workers left positions than... 11th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Strong household finances underpinning consumption The strength in household incomes poses some upside risks to our GDP forecasts. However, a more forceful recovery in domestic demand won't move the needle much in terms of inflationary pressures. In... 11th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) The latest data are consistent with our view that the world economy is in a soft patch. There are signs that global manufacturing is headed for recession and trade will soften. Consumers in DMs... 10th October 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) We think the Chancellor will raise taxes in line with the planned £16bn (0.6% of GDP) a year increase in public spending at the Budget on 30th October. The main influence of this will just be a... 9th October 2024 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Wage growth is starting to outpace inflation and with real incomes rising, the rebound in consumer... 8th October 2024 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Is the labour market really that strong? The unexpectedly strong 254,000 gain in payroll employment in September was a welcome surprise, but the deterioration in most other labour market indicators suggests this was a one-off rather than the... 7th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Wage growth still uncomfortably strong in LatAm, CEE Wage growth remains strong across much of Latin America and Central Europe (CEE), and that has stalled the disinflation process in services in particular. This supports our view that, in general... 7th October 2024 · 2 mins read
