Global Inflation Watch Global Inflation Watch: Tariff shock to drive US-Europe inflation divergence Inflation has proved somewhat stickier than we had anticipated, but the outlook of lacklustre growth, softening labour markets, normalising supply conditions and falling energy costs is consistent... 29th January 2025 · 18 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Spain GDP (Q4 2024) The 0.8% q/q increase in Spain’s GDP in Q4 2024 was a bit stronger than expected as the economy brushed off the negative effects of the flooding in Valencia. The economy is likely to continue to... 29th January 2025 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japan’s labour market to remain tight despite rate hikes The experience from other advanced economies is that there’s no hard and fast rule for how long it will take for the labour market to loosen in response to rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. But with... 27th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Cooling labour markets will support disinflation Data released this week suggest that the RBNZ's concerns about the stickiness of homegrown inflation are overdone. Indeed, non-tradables inflation undershot the Bank's expectations for a second... 24th January 2025 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update India, Trump and the H-1B visa debate President Donald Trump for now at least appears to be in favour of the H-1B visa scheme, a key route for Indians to work in the US tech sector, but the scheme is a key source of friction among his... 21st January 2025 · 4 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Jan. 2025) The economy continues to do well with GDP growing strongly, employment growth solid and core inflation pressures easing again. We are concerned, however, that the Trump administration’s policies will... 21st January 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Nov. 2024) While the further rise in regular private sector pay growth in November will cause the Bank of England some unease, it will take comfort from the continued loosening in labour market activity. We... 21st January 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (January 2025) The latest data suggest that resilient consumer spending supported GDP growth in the US towards the end of last year, while activity in other advanced economies remained weak. Industry continues to... 17th January 2025 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA may look past the tight labour market At first glance, data released this week should lessen the urgency for the Reserve Bank of Australia to loosen policy settings. After all, we learned that both unemployment and underutilisation rates... 17th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (Jan. 2025) Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The Antipodean central banks will tread different paths on policy over the forecast horizon. With the... 16th January 2025 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Dec. 2024) 16th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update The case for below-neutral rates in Australia It’s possible that prolonged weakness in economic activity and a jump in unemployment force the RBA to cut rates more aggressively than we’re anticipating. However, a more likely scenario resulting in... 15th January 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Jan. 2025) While the economy lost all momentum at the end of last year, we still expect GDP growth to accelerate from 0.8% in 2024 to an above-consensus 1.3% in 2025. Admittedly, activity could be restrained if... 13th January 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Jan. 2025) We expect the euro-zone economy to grow at only a sluggish pace this year, with southern economies outperforming the core. Germany’s election will lead to only a modest loosening of its restrictive... 10th January 2025 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response Employment Report (Dec. 2024) The larger-than-expected 256,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in December and drop back in the unemployment rate to 4.1% supports the Fed’s decision to slow the pace of rate cuts and has heightened... 10th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Labour Force Survey (Dec. 2024) The huge gain in employment in December supports our view that labour market conditions are strengthening, despite the recent upward trend in the unemployment rate. While weakness in private sector... 10th January 2025 · 3 mins read
