UK wage growth steadies as hiring stalls Paul Dales, at the consultancy Capital Economics, said the steadying of pay growth in private sector pay suggested that the BoE would continue to lower borrowing costs gradually. 12th November 2024 · Financial Times
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Nov. 2024) Wage growth is starting to outpace inflation and with real incomes rising, the rebound in consumer spending has further to run. With the Bank of Japan sounding more upbeat at their October meeting and... 12th November 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Sep. 2024) Even though the rise in pay growth in September will probably be followed by a bigger gain in October, as the new 5-6% public sector pay deals start, the easing in private sector regular pay growth... 12th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Trump win creates headache for Bank of Canada This week's labour market data and Summary of Deliberations from the Bank of Canada's October policy meeting were both overshadowed by Trump's win in the US election given its potential impact on the... 8th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Nov. 2024) GDP growth picked up in Q3 but timelier data suggest that the economy is poised for a weak Q4. We expect growth to remain slow next year regardless of whether President Trump raises tariffs on imports... 8th November 2024 · 1 min read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Oct. 2024) The muted rise in employment in October was even weaker than it seems, as, like in September, it was propped up by strong gains in youth employment. While the unchanged unemployment rate will reassure... 8th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Weakness in productivity growth partly structural The recent weakness in productivity growth is only partly due to a cyclical hangover from the pandemic as it also reflects the structural weakness in investment. With investment growth set to remain... 7th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q3 2024) The modest rise in the unemployment rate last quarter belies the precarity of the jobs market. We still believe the unemployment rate will eventually rise to a peak of 5.6% by end-2025. The dismal... 5th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone labour market is loosening Data released last week showed that the euro-zone’s unemployment rate was unchanged at a record low in September. But a broader assessment of the labour market suggests that it is cooling, and the... 5th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Nov. 2024) Earlier interest rate cuts are yet to have much effect on the Canadian economy, which remains trapped in a period of below-potential growth. Making matters worse, any boost to the economy from lower... 5th November 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Nov. 2024) The net fiscal loosening of £36bn (1.1% of GDP) in 2029/30 relative to previous plans unveiled by the Chancellor in the Budget means we now expect GDP growth of 1.8% and 1.7% in 2025 and 2026... 5th November 2024 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will start cutting rates early next year Although the Reserve Bank of Australia maintained a broadly neutral stance at its meeting today, we still think it will start to lower interest rates as soon as February next year. However, with the... 5th November 2024 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response Employment Report (Oct.) The near-complete flatline in payrolls in October was only partly due to disruptions caused by hurricanes and the Boeing strike. Given positive data elsewhere this week, we believe the Fed will look... 1st November 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Strong GDP & inflation not enough to prevent 50bp cut The stronger-than-expected euro-zone GDP and inflation data released this week, as well as some comments by ECB policymakers, poured some cold water on expectations that the ECB might accelerate the... 1st November 2024 · 8 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Oct .24) The economy has already regained some momentum on the back of increased policy support. But the extent of the recovery hinges on the scale of fiscal stimulus, which remains uncertain. Our base case is... 1st November 2024 · 1 min read
