Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Jan. 2025) A further strong rise in employment and tick down in the unemployment rate in January add to the sense the labour market is heating up, but earnings growth nevertheless eased back to 3.5%, from 4.0%... 7th February 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Jan. 2025) The softer 143,000 gain in payrolls in January is nothing to be concerned about following the upward revisions to payrolls in November and December, which left the three-month average gain at a near... 7th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Euro-zone wage growth set to ease significantly Despite the focus on r* recently at the ECB, we think that wage inflation will be a more important guide for monetary policy. And the ECB’s wage tracker released earlier this week suggests that wage... 7th February 2025 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA will look past strong household spending data Provisional household spending data published this week suggest that private consumption may have picked up more strongly in Q4 than the Reserve Bank of Australia had anticipated. However, given the... 7th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan will hike rates again soon While the surge in bonus payments in December in principle bodes well for the upcoming spring wage negotiations as it signals strong corporate profitability, it's worth highlighting that growth in... 7th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Feb. 2025) Our Canada Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The threat of US tariffs will hang over the economy for the foreseeable future, weighing on... 6th February 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Feb. 2025) Despite the recent weak news on activity and the uncertainty around the global outlook due to Trump’s US import tariffs, the stronger news on domestic price pressures means the Bank of England will... 5th February 2025 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q4 2024) 4th February 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS data point to balanced labour market Despite showing a modest fall in job openings, the totality of the December JOLTS data are consistent with a labour market that has stabilised at a healthy level. 4th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (December 24) Regular earnings growth will hold strong at just under 3% for most of this year Growth in base pay rose the most since 1992 in December, and we think it will continue to hold strong in this year... 4th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Focus How far will the EU go on Capital Markets Union? EU policymakers have stepped up their calls for progress towards Capital Markets Union and there will be steps in that direction in the coming years. But we aren’t holding our breath for major change... 31st January 2025 · 14 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Structural labour shortages point to more rate hikes The Tokyo CPI suggests that the Bank of Japan’s Board will need to revise up their inflation forecasts yet again at the May meeting. And with the expansion in employment running on fumes as the... 31st January 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA will start cutting rates in February With Australia's underlying inflation surprising materially to the downside in Q4, we've brought forward our forecast for the RBA's first rate cut from May to February. The data clearly show that... 31st January 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Activity & Labour Market (Dec. 24) & Tokyo CPI (Jan. 25) The end-month data rush vindicates the Bank’s decision to lift its policy rate last week and suggests that further tightening over the coming months is likely. 31st January 2025 · 2 mins read
US Employment Report Preview US Employment Report Preview: Revisions to sour image of buoyant labour market We forecast a 170,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in January, which would mark a slight acceleration from the recent average if we are right in assuming that there will be downward revision to past... 30th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update EC survey points to stagnation and risks to inflation January’s EC survey points to continued weak GDP growth at best. While it also suggests that there are some upside risks to inflation in the near term, firms’ employment expectations and labour... 30th January 2025 · 3 mins read
