China Chart Pack

China Chart Pack (Dec. 24)

Our China Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The economy should post decent growth in Q4 off the back of more forceful fiscal support. The...

19th December 2024 · 1 min read

Japan Economics Update

BoJ taking its time but will speed up tightening in 2025

The Bank of Japan's decision to leave rates on hold for a third consecutive meeting was not a great surprise. But in the post-meeting press conference Governor Ueda sounded in no hurry at all to...

19th December 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Labour Market (Oct. 2024)

The big rise in regular private sector pay growth in October will increase the Bank of England’s concerns about a resurgence in inflation despite the weak news on activity.

17th December 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

RBA’s dovish tilt won’t bring an earlier rate cut

The Reserve Bank of Australia struck a rather dovish tone at its meeting this week. As a result, markets see a growing chance that the Bank will begin its easing cycle as soon as February. However...

13th December 2024 · 5 mins read

Global Economics Chart Pack

Global Economics Chart Pack (Dec. 2024)

The latest data have shown that China is benefitting from a pick-up in government spending, the US economy continues to grow at a decent pace, and other advanced economies had a soft start to Q4...

12th December 2024 · 1 min read

Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook

ANZ Outlook: RBA and RBNZ to walk different paths

Although their recent performance leaves much to be desired, we believe that both Antipodean economies are on the cusp of a cyclical upswing. But while the RBNZ has ample room to support the recovery...

12th December 2024 · 20 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Labour Market (Nov. 2024)

With the labour market still firing on all cylinders, there’s little need for the RBA to rush to loosen policy. Accordingly, we still think the Bank won’t deliver its first rate cut before next May.

12th December 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Economic Outlook

Overseas slowdown won’t derail UK economy

Despite the deterioration in the global outlook, we remain optimistic that UK GDP growth will just about beat the consensus forecast over the next couple of years, as lower inflation and bigger falls...

10th December 2024 · 18 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

Is this a ‘vibecovery’?

Recent Bank of Canada communications have been keenly attuned to the downside risks to inflation and economic activity, concerns which seemed justified after last week’s disappointing GDP report...

6th December 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Chart Pack

Europe Chart Pack (Dec. 2024)

GDP growth picked up in Q3 but timelier data suggest that it has slowed in Q4. We expect growth to remain sluggish next year regardless of whether President Trump raises tariffs on imports from Europe...

6th December 2024 · 1 min read

Canada Rapid Response

Canada Labour Force Survey (Nov.)

We disagree with the market reaction to November's Labour Force Survey, implying that the jump in the unemployment rate makes a 50bp cut much more likely. A slowdown in immigration will soon act to...

6th December 2024 · 3 mins read

US Rapid Response

Employment Report (Nov. 2024)

The solid 227,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in November was driven partly by the reversal of the disruptions that weighed on hiring in October, but still implies that underlying employment growth was...

6th December 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Euro-zone growth outlook remains poor

Data released today show that euro-zone household consumption rose strongly in Q3. But slowing real income growth means that we expect spending growth to be subdued in the coming quarters. Meanwhile...

6th December 2024 · 4 mins read

Japan Rapid Response

Japan Labour Cash Earnings (October 24)

Base pay rose the most since 1992 in October and we think it will continue to hold strong through to the end of next year

5th December 2024 · 2 mins read

Canada Chart Pack

Canada Chart Pack (Dec. 2024)

Lower interest rates are yet to do much to spur the economy, but green shoots are emerging, with the timely activity surveys picking up and the newly-announced mini-fiscal stimulus expected to boost...

5th December 2024 · 1 min read