Europe Economics Focus Risks to the upside for euro-zone net migration Net immigration to the euro-zone has been very high in recent years, and the risks are skewed towards it exceeding the European Commission’s projection of 0.3% per year over the long term. The... 28th March 2025 · 9 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (March 2025) The EC survey for March shows a deterioration in business and consumer sentiment in the euro-zone, consistent with GDP doing little more than stagnate in Q1. This is a reminder that while sentiment in... 28th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA remains on course to deliver shallow easing cycle With its eyes on the May general election, the Australian government has put forward an array of new spending measures in its 2025/26 Budget. However, we don't believe the scope of fiscal expansion is... 28th March 2025 · 4 mins read
US Employment Report Preview US Employment Report Preview: Federal layoffs to be only a modest drag on payrolls DOGE-led layoffs of approximately 25,000 junior federal employees will be a modest drag on March payrolls, but they should be offset a rebound in weather-sensitive sectors. We forecast a smaller yet... 27th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Emerging Markets Outlook: Tariff storm one of many headwinds EM GDP growth picked up towards the end of last year, but the outlook is increasingly challenging – and not just because of US import tariffs. Weaker capital inflows, lower commodity prices and tight... 26th March 2025 · 27 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Mar. 2025) With the downside risks on activity shrinking and high price pressures being sustained, the Bank of England is probably becoming increasingly likely to pause interest rate cuts. 24th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook ANZ Outlook: RBA will cut less aggressively than RBNZ Both Antipodean economies seem to have turned a corner at the end of last year, and we expect the recoveries to gather momentum in the coming quarters. Given the tight labour market and elevated... 25th March 2025 · 20 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea’s poor demographics are not destiny just yet While Korea’s productivity growth has slowed, this has been offset by faster employment growth as more women and elderly have entered the labour market. If that trend continues and productivity growth... 24th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (March 2025) The latest data suggest that the world economy has made a relatively weak start to 2025. Activity in China has been soft so far this year amid a pullback in fiscal spending, while a surge in US... 21st March 2025 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Mar. 2025) A large drag from net trade will likely tip GDP growth into negative territory this quarter but we should see a rebound in Q2. Nonetheless, we expect quarterly growth to be weaker this year on average... 20th March 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Jan. 2025) With the labour market cooling rather than collapsing and wage growth stuck in the 5.5-6.0% range, we doubt the Bank of England will cut interest rates from 4.50% today. The next cut will probably be... 20th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Feb. 25) 20th March 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update CE UK Employment Indicator signals cooling not collapse Our new CE UK Employment Indicator, which extracts the overall signal from a range of measures of employment, suggests that while employment growth has continued to slow in Q1 this year, it is cooling... 19th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Japan Outlook: Tightening cycle has much further to run While trade tensions create downside risks, we expect GDP growth to be around trend this year. And following another strong showing in this year’s spring wage negotiations, wage growth will remain... 17th March 2025 · 18 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Duterte in the dock, Korea’s welcome workforce shift The arrest of former President Rodrigo Duterte by the ICC will not have any direct economic consequences, but it shines a light on the deepening political instability in the Philippines, particularly... 14th March 2025 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Ueda cautious despite strongest pay hikes in 34 years Even though this year’s spring wage negotiations resulted in the largest pay hike since 1991, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda this week sounded worried about developments overseas. That creates risk to... 14th March 2025 · 5 mins read
