Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Ueda cautious despite strongest pay hikes in 34 years Even though this year’s spring wage negotiations resulted in the largest pay hike since 1991, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda this week sounded worried about developments overseas. That creates risk to... 14th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Mar. 2025) Our Canada Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The imposition of US tariffs and risk of more to come will weigh on exports, consumer confidence... 11th March 2025 · 1 min read
US Economics Update JOLTS data healthy prior to DOGE purge While January’s JOLTS report was not much to shout about, timelier labour market data suggest conditions look set to worsen amid DOGE’s gutting of the federal workforce. We remain optimistic for now... 11th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Mar. 2025) Higher defence and infrastructure spending will support euro-zone GDP growth late this year and in 2026. But the boost will be smaller than some are hoping for and take time to feed through. So we... 10th March 2025 · 1 min read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Jan. 25) Regular pay growth surged in January and with this year’s spring wage negotiations set to result in stronger pay hikes than last year, wage growth will pick up further over the course of the year 9th March 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Feb. 2025) The modest 151,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in February and 0.1%-point rise in the unemployment rate to 4.1% confirms the economy started the year soft but is not plummeting towards a recession. Some... 7th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Feb. 2025) The essentially unchanged level of employment in February was probably mostly due to the unseasonably severe winter weather during the survey reference week rather than the threat of US tariffs... 7th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Shunto bonanza points to more rate hikes Japan’s trade unions are requesting an even larger pay hike in this year’s spring wage negotiations than they did a year ago and we expect employers to comply. With inflation already on track to... 7th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan 2025 spring wage negotiations (Shunto) wage request With Japan’s trade unions requesting an even larger pay hike in this year’s spring wage negotiations (Shunto) than they did a year ago, we now expect the negotiations to result in a base pay hike of... 6th March 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Mar. 2025) While the 0.1% q/q rise in GDP in Q4 of last year was stronger than we and most other forecasters expected, the combination of higher taxes for businesses announced in last October’s Budget, a... 5th March 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Jan. 2025) The euro-zone’s unemployment rate in January remained unchanged at its record low of 6.2% for a fourth consecutive month, but other data show that labour demand is weakening. With the economy growing... 4th March 2025 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Demographic crisis worsening as births keep falling Japan is now recording more than twice as many deaths as births, with that ratio only surpassed in war-ravaged Ukraine and celibate Holy See. While the number of employed people nonetheless hit a... 28th February 2025 · 4 mins read
US Employment Report Preview US Employment Report Preview: Employment growth to evade federal cutbacks for now We forecast a 170,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in February, given that most of the recent cuts to the federal workforce won’t yet have shown up in the data and employment in weather-sensitive sectors... 27th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (Feb. 2025) Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The RBA began its easing cycle with a 25bp cut this month, but it appeared in no hurry to loosen... 26th February 2025 · 1 min read
Long Run Economic Outlook Global megatrends will outweigh Trump disruption President Trump’s trade and other policies might cause turbulence over the next few years, but they are unlikely to derail the megatrends which will shape the global economy in the long run. We still... 25th February 2025 · 1 hr, 8 mins read
