Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook ANZ Outlook: RBA and RBNZ to walk different paths Although their recent performance leaves much to be desired, we believe that both Antipodean economies are on the cusp of a cyclical upswing. But while the RBNZ has ample room to support the recovery... 12th December 2024 · 20 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Nov. 2024) With the labour market still firing on all cylinders, there’s little need for the RBA to rush to loosen policy. Accordingly, we still think the Bank won’t deliver its first rate cut before next May. 12th December 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Overseas slowdown won’t derail UK economy Despite the deterioration in the global outlook, we remain optimistic that UK GDP growth will just about beat the consensus forecast over the next couple of years, as lower inflation and bigger falls... 10th December 2024 · 18 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Is this a ‘vibecovery’? Recent Bank of Canada communications have been keenly attuned to the downside risks to inflation and economic activity, concerns which seemed justified after last week’s disappointing GDP report... 6th December 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Dec. 2024) GDP growth picked up in Q3 but timelier data suggest that it has slowed in Q4. We expect growth to remain sluggish next year regardless of whether President Trump raises tariffs on imports from Europe... 6th December 2024 · 1 min read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Nov.) We disagree with the market reaction to November's Labour Force Survey, implying that the jump in the unemployment rate makes a 50bp cut much more likely. A slowdown in immigration will soon act to... 6th December 2024 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response Employment Report (Nov. 2024) The solid 227,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in November was driven partly by the reversal of the disruptions that weighed on hiring in October, but still implies that underlying employment growth was... 6th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone growth outlook remains poor Data released today show that euro-zone household consumption rose strongly in Q3. But slowing real income growth means that we expect spending growth to be subdued in the coming quarters. Meanwhile... 6th December 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (October 24) Base pay rose the most since 1992 in October and we think it will continue to hold strong through to the end of next year 5th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Dec. 2024) Lower interest rates are yet to do much to spur the economy, but green shoots are emerging, with the timely activity surveys picking up and the newly-announced mini-fiscal stimulus expected to boost... 5th December 2024 · 1 min read
US Economics Update JOLTS shows labour market finding a floor The rebound in job openings in October suggests that labour market conditions are stabilising at a healthy level. Meanwhile, despite a small rebound in the private quits rate, it still points to wage... 3rd December 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Bank of Japan will hike rates to 1.25% by end-2026 We now expect inflation excluding fresh food and energy to remain above the Bank of Japan’s target for most of next year as the yen remains weak for longer and the upcoming spring wage negotiations... 3rd December 2024 · 18 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Market (Oct. 2024) & Tokyo CPI (Nov. 2024) The Tokyo CPI suggests that inflation excluding fresh food and energy rose further above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target in November, supporting our long-held view that the Bank will hike rates in... 28th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (November 2024) The EC survey was little changed in November and is still consistent with weak growth at best, while the price components suggest that inflationary pressures remain sticky. 28th November 2024 · 2 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Employment growth to rebound as disruptions unwind The reversal of weather- and strike-related disruptions leave us anticipating a 190,000 rise in nonfarm payrolls in November. We expect the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.1%, while wage growth... 27th November 2024 · 3 mins read
