UK Data Response Labour Market (Nov.) The larger-than-expected rise in employment in November suggests the labour market has turned a corner after the weakness in Q3. That could help to convince the Monetary Policy Committee to hold off... 21st January 2020 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Tentative signs of recovery 2019 was truly an annus horribilis for India’s economy but there are green shoots of a recovery in the data from the very end of the year. Industrial production growth jumped in November. Meanwhile... 20th January 2020 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBA’s work not done yet Australia’s house prices may rise by 8% this year but consumers are still reeling under high debt loads. With growth set to fall short of potential, we still expect unemployment to rise further which... 16th January 2020 · 22 mins read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Dec.) The small improvement in the Economy Watchers Survey (EWS) in December suggests household spending was slow to recover from October’s sales tax hike. Both household-related activity and employment... 14th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Chances of policy easing diminishing The Bank of Japan will almost certainly leave policy settings unchanged when its forthcoming meeting concludes on 21st January as recent data have mostly been reassuring. And while we expect the... 14th January 2020 · 7 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Dec.) The slowdown in payroll growth to a solid 145,000 last month shows that the economy is still creating more than enough jobs to keep pace with population growth. With economic growth bottoming out and... 10th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Labour Force Survey (Dec.) December’s partial rebound in employment shows that the bottom isn’t dropping out of the labour market, but the slump in wage growth underscores our forecast that core inflation is likely to decline... 10th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Long Run Economic Outlook EM catch-up to slow as globalisation stalls 10th January 2020 · 1 hr, 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Some good news for Q4 but 2020 still looks soft Trade and retail sales data for November both provided some reason to be optimistic about GDP growth in Q4. But looking past the positive headlines, we still think the outlook for domestic demand in... 10th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Nov.) While the increase in industrial production in November comes as a bit of a relief, it merely reversed the decline in the previous month and still means that output is likely to have fallen again in... 9th January 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economic Outlook The road to recovery After a year to forget in 2019, a combination of policy loosening and more effective measures to deal with the malaise in the shadow banking sector will push economic growth in India back up to a... 9th January 2020 · 19 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Growth to fall short of expectations The sales tax hike has not been as damaging as many had feared. But we remain more pessimistic about the outlook for global growth and domestic investment than most. That explains why we expect GDP to... 8th January 2020 · 22 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Nov.) Overall wage growth was the weakest it has been in six months in November and the increase in the unemployment rate we are anticipating should ensure it will remain soft over the coming months. We are... 8th January 2020 · 2 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Continued solid gains in payrolls We estimate that non-farm payrolls rose by 150,000 in December and, with the incoming survey data improving again, jobs growth looks set to remain solid throughout 2020 as well. 2nd January 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Mixed end to a disappointing year The last round of economic data released this year pointed to a mixed performance in Latin America. Growth seems to have remained robust in Colombia in Q4 – and to have strengthened in Brazil – but... 19th December 2019 · 13 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Unemployment rates will continue to rise in 2020 Annual GDP growth in Australia has probably bottomed out already but we expect growth to remain below potential in 2020. As such, jobs growth will probably not be strong enough to absorb the expansion... 19th December 2019 · 10 mins read
