Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Nov.) & Unemployment (Oct.) November’s jump in inflation is unlikely to be the beginning of a sustained upward trend in price pressures. With employment growth slowing and slack in the labour market increasing, wage growth seems... 29th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Industrial Production (Oct.) The sharp fall in industrial production in October suggests the economy might have been hit harder by the sales tax hike than we were expecting. And while the unemployment rate remained unchanged in... 29th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Core inflation hits multi-year highs across CEE Headline inflation has eased across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) over the past few months, but that was entirely due to falling food and fuel inflation; core price pressures have continued to... 28th November 2019 · 15 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Regional giants both stumble Figures released over the past month painted a very downbeat picture of economic conditions in Africa’s two largest economies. Growth in Nigeria did, admittedly, pick up a touch in Q3. But activity... 28th November 2019 · 14 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Recent positive data, Vietnam raises the retirement age Economic data published this week by Singapore and Korea, which are both good bellwethers for the rest of the region, add to evidence that the worst is now over for regional growth. Meanwhile, the... 22nd November 2019 · 7 mins read
India Chart Pack Services holding up better than industry Q3 GDP data due next week are likely to show a further slowdown in India’s economy, with the industrial sector the main source of weakness. However, some comfort can be taken from the fact that the... 22nd November 2019 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack QE will result in lower bond yields in Australia The decline in bond yields in Australia and New Zealand throughout 2019 has paused in recent months following optimism about a potential trade deal between the US and China and hawkish language from... 21st November 2019 · 10 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Protests persist, but fallout will vary Ongoing protests in Chile, Hong Kong and Lebanon will weigh on their economies and financial markets, but to different degrees. While the tightening of financial conditions and strikes in Chile will... 15th November 2019 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Labour market will remain RBA’s headache We wouldn’t read too much into October’s largest fall in employment in three years as the monthly data are volatile. But we still expect the unemployment rate to rise in the coming months as the... 15th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (second estimate), Employment (Q3) While the second estimate of Q3 GDP for the euro-zone was unchanged, and Germany narrowly avoided a technical recession, we think that the cyclical downturn in the region still has further to run. Our... 14th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Oct.) The sharp fall in employment will be causing concern for the RBA and we think the unemployment rate has further to rise in the coming months. 14th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Cracks beginning to appear in the labour market The recent softening of hiring intentions implies that average monthly employment gains will slow further, to below the sustainable rate. While base effects will keep annual hourly wage growth above 4... 13th November 2019 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Wage Price Index (Q3) The slowdown in wage growth in the third quarter doesn’t come as a complete surprise to the RBA and we still expect the Bank to wait until February before cutting rates again. 13th November 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Sep.) After GDP growth disappointed expectations yesterday, the smaller than expected fall in employment in the three months to September was something of a relief. At the margin, the figures reduce the... 12th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Labour Force Survey (Oct.) The details of October’s Labour Force Survey were worse than the modest fall in employment first suggested. Full-time and private sector positions fell, while the rise in public sector and part-time... 8th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Household Spending & Labour Cash Earnings (Sep.) The surge in household spending in September adds to the evidence of a last-minute spending spree ahead of October’s sales tax hike. While that raises the chances of a deep slump in the following... 8th November 2019 · 2 mins read
