Richest households lose £3,500 in just a year Paul Dales, the chief UK economist at Capital Economics, warned that an even bigger blow is in the pipeline if Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor, presses ahead with anticipated tax rises in her October... 25th September 2024 · The Telegraph
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBA has less room to cut rates than the RBNZ A tight labour market and elevated public demand will keep the RBA from loosening policy before early-2025. Moreover, we expect the forthcoming easing cycle to be short-lived by past standards. By... 25th September 2024 · 20 mins read
Event LatAm Drop-In: Mexico’s economy and markets as Sheinbaum takes charge 1727791200 Our economists think Mexico will be Latin America’s worst-performing economy in the coming years. Will its new president be able to change the narrative?
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Saudi Vision 2030: where it is going right (and wrong) Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 reform programme has resulted in major societal and cultural changes, but many of the economic reforms are currently not on track to hit their targets. That is not to say... 23rd September 2024 · 29 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s budget, Brazil’s hike, new macro forecasts The Argentine government's ambitious 2025 budget plans unveiled this week are underpinned by very optimistic economic projects and meeting the 'zero deficit' target will be challenging. And at the... 20th September 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Aug. 2024) August’s public finances figures continued the recent run of bad news on the fiscal position, with public borrowing on track to overshoot the OBR’s 2024/25 forecast of £87.2bn by £6.2bn. And although... 20th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Sluggish growth but stubborn inflation Tight policy and deteriorating terms of trade will keep growth across Latin America subdued and we think that the region will underperform other parts of the emerging world – as well as consensus... 19th September 2024 · 19 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf’s non-oil sectors set for a slowdown Headline GDP growth in the Gulf economies will strengthen sharply in 2025 as oil output cuts are unwound. But lower oil prices will prompt a turn to fiscal consolidation in most of the Gulf, causing... 19th September 2024 · 20 mins read
China Economics Update Slowdown still has a lot further to run An acceleration in fiscal spending during the final months of the year should mean the 2024 growth target of “around 5.0%” is met, but only just – we now expect growth of 4.8% this year. China’s... 19th September 2024 · 5 mins read
India Economic Outlook Rate cuts on the horizon The economy is cooling but remains primed to grow by 6-6.5% per year between 2024 and 2026, which would put India on course to become the world’s third-largest economy in the next couple of years... 18th September 2024 · 16 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Public demand limiting RBA’s scope to cut rates Even though state and federal budgets point to a sharp slowdown in public demand in 2024/25, our analysis suggests that the public sector will keep providing a sizeable boost to GDP growth. And if we... 18th September 2024 · 12 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Inflation and fiscal risks simmering We have generally revised down our growth forecasts for this year and next. Weakness in the euro-zone will remain a drag on export sectors across Central and Eastern Europe in the coming quarters... 17th September 2024 · 22 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs: key client questions answered We recently held a series of EM-focused client meetings in Switzerland and Germany which covered a wide range of topics, including the impact of global fracturing, AI and the green transition on... 16th September 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly The fine line between delivering fiscal prudence and growth The Office for Budget Responsibility’s “Fiscal risks and sustainability report" showed that if left unchecked the public debt to GDP ratio would spiral from 98% now to 274% by the mid-2070s. But there... 13th September 2024 · 7 mins read
