Africa Economics Weekly

South Africa Budget, SARB new MPC member

South Africa’s finance minister recommitted to fiscal restraint in this week’s Budget, but fiscal pressures before and after May’s election are likely to derail the plans. The debt-to-GDP ratio will...

23rd February 2024 · 7 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

Tax cuts now imply tax rises after the election

Whatever the Chancellor gives away in tax cuts in the Budget, the next government will have to take away in the form of tax hikes after the election. This means any fiscal sugar rush for the economy...

23rd February 2024 · 4 mins read

India Chart Pack

India Chart Pack (Feb. 2024)

Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India’s economy performed exceptionally well last year and the latest data suggest that it has made...

22nd February 2024 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Tunisia’s unorthodox policy shift, Egypt’s Unified Budget Act

While Tunisia's government managed to avert default this week by meeting a Eurobond repayment, it only did so by draining already low FX reserves. With the new central bank governor set to take...

22nd February 2024 · 6 mins read

Africa Economics Update

SA: election pressures will challenge austerity plans

The fiscal restraint shown by South Africa’s finance minister in today’s Budget was received positively in local financial markets, but the reality is that the government will struggle to meet its...

21st February 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Public Finances (Jan.)

January’s public finances figures delivered some much-needed good news for the Chancellor in the lead-up to the Budget on 6th March. But we doubt this will pave the way for a very big pre-election...

21st February 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Focus

Spring Budget 2024 Preview – Electioneering beats prudence

Using most of the fiscal headroom of about £15bn to cut taxes in the Spring Budget on 6th March would show that the Chancellor is putting the election before prudence. Such tax cuts may help lift the...

20th February 2024 · 21 mins read

Event

UK Drop-In: Spring Budget 2024 – Jeremy Hunt goes shopping for votes

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The UK Chancellor may use his 6th March Spring Budget to splash the cash and try to win voter support for the beleaguered Conservative party ahead of an expected electi

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Israel’s rating downgrade, Turkey’s external position

The decision by Moody's to deliver Israel's first credit rating downgrade in its history late last week is a warning sign to policymakers that the strength of the public finances should not be taken...

16th February 2024 · 8 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

A look ahead to South Africa’s Budget

South Africa’s Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana faces an uphill task in next week’s Budget to convince investors that the government will be able to place the public finances on a sustainable footing...

16th February 2024 · 8 mins read

India Economics Weekly

Farmer protests won’t lead to big fiscal giveaways

Widescale protests by agriculture workers demanding higher prices for crops have dominated the headlines this week. But the BJP is unlikely to make any big fiscal concessions given that its political...

16th February 2024 · 5 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Saudi public finances and fiscal outlook, Egypt-IMF latest

Figures published this week confirmed that Saudi Arabia ran a budget deficit over 2023 and we expect another deficit this year. While the government shouldn’t struggle to finance this, if oil prices...

15th February 2024 · 6 mins read

Africa Economics Update

Can the SARB help South Africa’s public finances?

South Africa’s fiscal strains have seen the government explore tapping revaluation gains on the country’s FX reserves held at the SARB. Utilising these funds to pay down the government’s debt would...

15th February 2024 · 5 mins read

US Economics Update

Read my lips: No new tax cuts

Speculation will inevitably build that a Donald Trump victory in this year’s presidential election would be followed, once again, by large-scale tax cuts. With the Federal budget outlook in a far...

12th February 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Pemex debt fears back in the spotlight

Moody’s downgrade of Pemex at the end of last week reinforces the view we set out last year that the next government in Mexico will prove to be less supportive of the troubled state energy company...

12th February 2024 · 4 mins read