UK Economics Focus

Could new fiscal rules spur on the economy?

The current fiscal framework is not perfect and could be reformed to improve investor confidence in the management of the public finances, tilt the composition of spending towards investment and...

12th June 2024 · 16 mins read

Europe Economics Update

How radical would Le Pen’s party be in office?

France’s National Rally has advocated policies that would increase the budget deficit and provoke clashes with the EU. During the election campaign, it will probably moderate these views, but the...

11th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Mexico’s energy sector at a turning point?

Mexican President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum’s strong environmental credentials mean that a shift away from fossil fuels and towards renewables is likely during her tenure. We doubt that she’ll fully...

10th June 2024 · 5 mins read

Event

Drop-In: Europe’s shock election results, Macron’s gamble and the economic outlook

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The shock results of Europe’s parliament elections have roiled markets as investors respond harshly to news of President Macron’s surprise decision to dissolve F

Africa Economics Weekly

SA’s uncertain coalition talks, Nigeria’s strike

South Africa’s post-election uncertainty continued this week, with the ANC outlining its desire for a government of national unity with a broad range of opposition parties. This looks like a non...

7th June 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Mexico’s ‘supermajority’ worries, Brazil’s Q1 GDP figures

The prospect of a Morena-led supermajority in Mexico’s congress following Sunday’s election could allow Amlo's proposed constitutional amendments to see the light of day, weakening Mexico’s...

7th June 2024 · 7 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

The disconnect between the tax and spending plans

While both the Conservatives and the Labour Party have been talking a good game on tax, there is a big disconnect between their desire to keep tax low and their plans to increase spending. In a...

7th June 2024 · 9 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

UAE exceptionalism, Egypt reshuffle, Saudi mortgages

The decision by OPEC+ to roll over oil production cuts until October will reduce economic growth in the Gulf this year, but the UAE has emerged a clear winner. Higher oil output there will lead to a...

6th June 2024 · 7 mins read

UK Economics Update

Which taxes could rise after the election?

Whoever wins the general election on 4th July will have three main choices when it comes to spending and taxes. First, the new government could change the fiscal rules to give itself more fiscal space...

5th June 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Answering your questions on Mexico’s election

Our initial response to Claudia Sheinbaum’s victory in Mexico’s presidential election can be found here. We also held a Drop-in earlier today. This Update summarises the key points that we discussed...

3rd June 2024 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

OPEC+ decision to keep a lid on Gulf economies’ growth

The decision by OPEC+ to keep oil production lower over the rest of this year means that oil sectors in the Gulf will grow more slowly than we had previously anticipated and we have revised down our...

3rd June 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Russia tax hikes, Israel rates, European elections

The tax hikes announced by the Russian finance ministry this week will help to plug the hole created by the growing military budget, but won’t deliver the scale of fiscal tightening needed to stop the...

31st May 2024 · 9 mins read

China Economics Weekly

Fiscal tailwinds to return, export rush lifts freight rates

Today’s PMIs suggest that China’s rebound is faltering. That appears to reflect a drying up of fiscal support after the initial surge at the beginning of the year. There’s more in the pipeline though...

31st May 2024 · 5 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

Is there a growth dividend from a large government majority?

With both Labour and the Conservatives this week ruling out increases in income tax, national insurance and VAT, it remains difficult to see how cuts to public services can be avoided after the...

31st May 2024 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

OPEC+ set for crunch talks and Egypt’s fiscal reforms

This weekend’s OPEC+ meeting could be a stick or twist moment with markets increasingly believing the group will roll over its quotas and voluntary cuts again. If quotas are extended, that risks...

30th May 2024 · 6 mins read