August’s public finances figures continued the recent run of bad news on the fiscal position, with public borrowing on track to overshoot the OBR’s 2024/25 forecast of £87.2bn by £6.2bn. And although the OBR may hand the Chancellor more headroom against the fiscal rules at the Budget on 30th October, we expect her to fully fund the planned £16bn increase in spending in 2024/25 by raising taxes rather than borrowing.
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