Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Monetary policy will remain restrictive for longer Australia’s GDP growth will remain soft throughout the first half of the year so the recent stalling in inflation should be followed by a renewed moderation. However, as the labour market remains very... 27th March 2024 · 20 mins read
Long Run Focus The fiscal headache of ageing populations One of the key problems for countries with ageing populations is how to tackle the associated fiscal costs. Those countries which have a good record for structural reform and/or scope to raise taxes... 26th March 2024 · 24 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Mar. 2024) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India retained its title as the world’s fastest-growing major economy last year and the latest data... 26th March 2024 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook A soft 2024, but faster growth around the corner Low oil output in the Gulf will constrain GDP growth over the first half of this year. But as this reverses, growth will pick up and by more than most expect. Elsewhere in Middle East and North Africa... 25th March 2024 · 20 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Inflation: From too high to too low After having been too high for the past three years, inflation in the UK will be too low for the next three years, and much lower than in the US and the euro-zone. Not only do we think that CPI... 25th March 2024 · 17 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s surpluses, consumer strength Argentina’s government ran another bumper primary budget surplus in February, taking President Milei a step closer to his target of achieving a balanced overall budget this year. But while the latest... 22nd March 2024 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Policy support a temporary prop to construction Local government financing vehicles are ramping up land purchases to build more public housing, while developers are being given more financing to accelerate work on unfinished projects. This may... 22nd March 2024 · 4 mins read
US Economic Outlook Inflation to fall further as GDP growth slows Although we expect GDP growth to slow to a below-potential pace over the next few quarters, we then anticipate a pick-up late this year, as monetary policy flips from a headwind to a tailwind. Our... 21st March 2024 · 16 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Feb. 2024) February’s disappointing public finances figures suggest that the OBR’s new 2023/24 borrowing forecast published in March’s Budget already looks too optimistic. But this may not prevent the government... 21st March 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria Eurobond, SA banks and SDR increase The Nigerian naira’s latest devaluation has taken it closer to fair value and, with investor sentiment towards Nigeria improving, the government is lining up a fresh Eurobond sale. That may help to... 15th March 2024 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Equipment investment push may aggravate imbalances Chinese policymakers want firms to increase equipment investment by 25% over the coming four years. If achieved, that would provide a temporary boost to domestic demand and GDP growth. But the lasting... 15th March 2024 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly The good and bad of Egypt’s policy shift, Aramco transfer Last week’s policy moves in Egypt have raised concerns about a fresh surge in inflation, particularly after the jump recorded in the February CPI data. But while inflation may increase again in March... 14th March 2024 · 6 mins read
India Economic Outlook World-beating growth set to continue India retained its title as the world’s fastest-growing major economy last year and we expect further strong growth over the coming years. That would put India on course to become the world’s third... 13th March 2024 · 20 mins read
Canada Economics Update Trump 2.0 poses new headwinds for Canada The key risk for Canada’s economy from the US presidential election is that a Trump administration could pull out of the USMCA, leaving Canada subject to any US import tariffs. To avoid that, Canada... 11th March 2024 · 5 mins read
