UK Economics Focus

Spring Budget – Pre-election boost to turn into post-election drag

The net giveaway of £13.9bn (0.5% of GDP) in 2024/25 in the Budget may help end the recession before an election later this year. But fiscal policy is still being tightened in 2024/25 and that...

6th March 2024 · 16 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Spring Budget 2024

The net fiscal giveaway of £13.9bn (0.5% of GDP) in 2024/25 in the Budget may at the margin help lift the economy out of its mild recession before an election later this year. But a big tightening in...

6th March 2024 · 3 mins read

Japan Economic Outlook

Negative rates will end but tightening cycle unlikely

The economy isn’t in recession but GDP growth will slow towards trend this year. With a virtuous cycle between wages and prices now in full swing, we expect the Bank of Japan to end negative rates at...

6th March 2024 · 17 mins read

China Economics Focus

China’s economic roadmap for 2024

The policy agenda laid out at the National People’s Congress today is a reasonably pro-growth one. The new fiscal plans are supportive, monetary policy continues to have an easing bias, and the...

5th March 2024 · 15 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Is Turkey’s economy getting the medicine it needs?

The unexpected re-acceleration in Turkish GDP growth in Q4 challenges the view that aggressive monetary tightening delivered over the second half of last year is rebalancing the economy. If inflation...

1st March 2024 · 8 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Nigeria rate hike, Kenya inflation, Zambia debt deal

The Nigerian central bank’s 400bp interest rate hike should help provide respite to the naira and help to curb inflation. But Nigeria will need to shift away from interventionist fiscal and FX short...

1st March 2024 · 7 mins read

China Economics Weekly

What to watch at the National People’s Congress

The annual meeting of China’s parliament will open on Tuesday with a panoply of speeches and reports. Here’s what to focus on.

1st March 2024 · 6 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

Housing leading the economy out of recession

The government’s desperation to close the gap on Labour in the opinion polls means surprisingly big tax cuts shouldn’t be ruled out from the Budget on Wednesday despite the fiscal constraints that...

1st March 2024 · 5 mins read

China Chart Pack

China Chart Pack (Feb. 2024)

China’s economy has regained some strength recently. We expect this to continue over the coming months, on the back of support from fiscal policy and a further pick-up in household spending. But with...

29th February 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Romania needs to reduce its macro imbalances

Romania’s large twin budget and current account deficits remain a key concern. One near-term risk is that fiscal policy stays very loose (or is loosened further), particularly in view of elections...

28th February 2024 · 5 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

The Times: Why 99 per cent mortgages will make the housing crisis worse

A version of this report was originally published as an opinion piece in The Times on 28th February 2024.

28th February 2024 · 4 mins read

China Economics Update

Supportive fiscal policy will support growth in HK

Today’s budget maintains a supportive fiscal stance, and contains major steps to revitalise the property sector. Spending to attract foreign visitors to Hong Kong and support businesses was stepped up...

28th February 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Update

Spring Budget 2024 Checklist

This is an updated checklist which takes into account our latest expectations for the Spring Budget. The checklist helps clients keep track of the key policies and forecasts announced during the...

28th February 2024 · 3 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Mexico: Amlo leaving public finances on a slippery slope

Mexico’s President López Obrador’s cloak of fiscal prudence is being shed this year as Morena tries to bolster its support ahead of June’s election. As some of the factors supportive of the public...

27th February 2024 · 3 mins read

Africa Economics Update

SA: assessing the implications of a lower inflation target

Talk of the South African Reserve Bank’s inflation target being lowered has reared its head again. In this Update, we answer five key questions on what this could mean for the economy. In the near...

27th February 2024 · 6 mins read