Japan Economics Weekly Net government debt to remain stable We expect the ratio of net government debt to GDP to remain broadly unchanged in coming years, as a weaker yen and a buoyant stock market should lift the value of public assets by enough to offset... 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Economy being dragged down by investment slump The slump in oil prices has already pushed the Canadian economy into a mild recession and things could yet go from bad to worse. Falling energy investment will hit both production and jobs, which will... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Economy was gaining momentum at end of Q2 Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) points to growth being markedly slower than the official figures show. That said, it supports the view that growth stabilised in Q2 and that policy support has recently... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Greece’s bailout bad for the euro? The recent decline in the euro suggests that the markets see the new Greek bailout plan as less favourable for the single currency than a swift Grexit. But the driving force on the euro over the next... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Jun.) While June’s public finances brought less encouraging news on the pace of deficit reduction, there is no need for the Chancellor to panic yet. Indeed, robust growth in tax receipts suggests that the... 21st July 2015 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Signs labour market losing some momentum The equity market has received all the attention recently but evidence that the labour market is coming off the boil arguably matters more to China’s economy. There was a big fall in the ratio of job... 20th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will policymakers choke off the recovery? Over the coming months, the economy will have to absorb both a renewed fiscal tightening and the first rise in interest rates since 2007. But the public sector cuts will now be phased in more... 20th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How worrying is the rise in unemployment? The surprise rise in unemployment revealed by last week’s labour market figures might be just a blip. However, the fact that both main measures of unemployment rose makes it harder to dismiss this as... 17th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Will the rest of the world hold the UK back? Although external threats to the UK economy have multiplied this year, we do not think that they are likely to derail the recovery. Indeed, the resilience of the UK’s economic recovery has shocked... 16th July 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Credit slowdown to weigh on Asian growth After a poor start to 2015, we expect growth in Emerging Asia to pick up in the second half of the year as the benefits of lower oil prices and loose monetary policy filter through to the domestic... 16th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Reasons to be cheerful Given the ongoing troubles in the euro-zone and fears about a slowdown in China, one could be forgiven for adopting something of a gloomy mood. However, there are plenty of reasons to remain cheerful... 13th July 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi debt issuance aimed at financial market development Saudi Arabia’s budget deficit is likely to reach an eye-watering 17.5% of GDP this year and the government has now turned to the bond market in order to help plug the gap. Some have argued that debt... 13th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek deal will only delay the inevitable Today’s tentative deal for a new Greek bailout clearly reduces the risk of a near-term exit from the single currency. But significant hurdles must be overcome before the deal is finalised. And the... 13th July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Which is the greater global threat: Grexit or China? In our view, the debate over whether Greek exit from the euro or the slump in China’s stock market poses the greater threat to the rest of the world is missing the point that neither actually has to... 10th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly The Osborne Identity: Pragmatist not ideologue Despite being unshackled from the constraints of the coalition, the Chancellor chose pragmatism over ideological fervour in last week’s Budget. As well as easing the pace at which borrowing is set to... 10th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Can the consumer recovery survive a renewed fiscal squeeze? The Summer Budget confirmed that consumers face an imminent ramping-up of the fiscal squeeze. But there are still reasons to remain optimistic that the recovery in spending won’t be derailed. 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
