Europe Economics Weekly Fragile euro-zone recovery needs more ECB support Despite the better tone to the economic data coming out of the euro-zone in recent weeks, we still expect growth to slow in the second half of the year as the twin tailwinds of the lower oil price and... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Fiscal position not a major concern for now The rapid expansion of the government deficit in the early part of this fiscal year has led to some concerns about the Finance Ministry’s ability to meet its budgeted target. These concerns are... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil's fiscal mess goes from bad to worse The move by Brazil’s government to yet again lower its fiscal targets for 2016 means that its projections for the public finances are finally starting to look realistic. But at the same time, they... 3rd September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Resurgence in exports unlikely to last The UK economy fired on all cylinders in Q2, with investment and net trade both providing considerable support to GDP growth. However, exports look set for a relapse soon. 3rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand’s economic struggles to continue Thailand’s economy started the second half of 2015 on a weak note, and while the recently announced fiscal stimulus package should help support demand, it is unlikely to be a game-changer. Rising... 3rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Deflation dangers still lingering While the crisis in Greece appears to have receded at least temporarily, the euro-zone still faces serious challenges in the form of weak growth and persistent deflation risks. As the Chart below... 2nd September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Aug.) The euro-zone’s peripheral economies appear to have strengthened their fiscal positions further at the start of Q3. But this year’s budget targets still look elusive for most. Greece, in particular... 1st September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Spanish GDP (Q2 2nd est.) The strong expansion in Spain’s economy in Q2 was powered by domestic demand. But this partly reflected the effects of lower oil prices and looser fiscal policy ahead of the general election. As these... 27th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How will policymakers respond to the market rout? China’s interest rate cut has helped to stem the panic that has gripped emerging markets in recent days, but it has also raised the obvious question about whether other EMs may follow suit. We doubt... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Panic about China is overblown Investors are over reacting about economic risks in China. The collapse of the equity bubble tells us next to nothing about the state of China’s economy. In fact, recent data have been more positive... 24th August 2015 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (Aug.) The drop in Mexican inflation in the first half of the month suggests that the sharp fall in the peso is still having little impact on domestic price pressures. While the recent sell-off in the... 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Jul.) July’s public borrowing figures showed that the public finances are now benefitingfully from the economic recovery’s strength. But at this early stage of the fiscal year,it is too soon to conclude... 21st August 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly GPIF's higher returns won’t solve social security woes The Government Pension Investment Fund achieved a record profit last year, and the value of its assets climbed to a fresh high. However, the fund won’t earn double-digit returns on a sustained basis... 21st August 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Growing disparities in Gulf fiscal policy The past month has brought further signs of diverging attitudes in the Gulf to dealing with the fiscal headache caused by low oil prices. If media reports are to be believed, the UAE looks set to... 20th August 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: chance of rate hikes growing A sharp fall in its currency, rising inflation and a widening current account deficit have increased the chance that Colombia’s central bank will tighten monetary conditions in the coming quarters... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Why hasn’t China’s new resource tax led to higher REE prices? The costs of rare earth elements (REEs) have continued to fall despite China’s new tax regime. However, we think that it is only a matter of time before higher taxes and positive demandfundamentals... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
