Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: fiscal squeeze to weigh on growth for years to come There are signs that the slump in the Russian economy is now close to bottoming out. However, we think that when the recovery does come, it is likely to be extremely weak at best. One reason for this... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Fiscal tweaks not big enough to prompt MPC hike this year Despite the Chancellor’s decision to smooth the fiscal squeeze in yesterday’s Budget, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is likely to continue to keep interest rates on hold until next year... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2015: Less radical, more pragmatic This was not as radical a Budget as many had feared and some had hoped. It was, as the Chancellor presented it, a “One Nation” Budget. From the macroeconomic viewpoint, the most important aspect was... 8th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Portugal the euro-zone’s next weakest link? Although the ECB’s OMT programme may allow Portugal to weather a Grexit, the country still faces serious challenges that might jeopardise the country’s long-term position within the currency union. 8th July 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Familiar constraints could stall rise in public investment There are signs that the government’s plans to ramp up public investment over the coming years are bearing fruit. However, it is early days and, looking ahead, fully implementing the plans will be a... 8th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Is Puerto Rico the next Greece? Governor Alejandro Garcia Padilla's comment last week that "the debt is not payable" has raised fears that a Puerto Rico debt crisis could have a bigger impact on US financial markets than the crisis... 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Budget to leave economy still facing big fiscal squeeze As far as the UK is concerned, the main point to take from last week’s Greek developments wasthat there are still limited signs of contagion to the rest of the euro-zone. So far, so not-too-badthen... 3rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greece has room to grow outside the euro The large degree of spare capacity in the Greek economy suggests that it could perform well if the constraints of fiscal austerity and a strong currency were removed via a euro-zone exit. But Greece’s... 3rd July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2015 Preview The Budget on 8th July will be all about providing the details of the second stage of austerity and hopes have been building that Mr Osborne will smooth the profile of the spending cuts. But the... 1st July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Contagion from Greece limited for now Greece’s crisis escalated further in June, culminating in a default to the IMF, the imposition of capital controls and the expiry of the second bailout programme. In response, Greek 10 year government... 1st July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Tsipras blinks, but Grexit risks are still high The expiry of Greece’s second bailout programme and its “default” to the IMF have raised the crisis to a new level. With latest polls suggesting that a majority of voters will vote to reject the... 1st July 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Risk of “Grexit” hangs over Asia’s export outlook The direct links between Emerging Asia and Greece are very limited. Exports to Greece account for only a tiny proportion of regional GDP, while banking sector ties are negligible. What matters more... 30th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greferendum – key questions & answers The Greek Government’s decision to call a referendum has elevated the crisis to a higher level. Whilea deal may yet come together, a near-term Grexit now seems more likely than not. This... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine policymakers still up to their old tricks Argentina’s statistics office reported that GDP grew by 1.1% y/y in Q1, but independent data suggestthat although conditions have improved, there has not yet been a return to growth. And worryingly... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Why hasn't the fading fiscal drag boosted GDP growth? With the best will in the world towards the anti-austerians, the bigger fiscal squeeze in 2013 had amuch smaller impact on the economy's performance than many feared, while the more recentfading of... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly The final countdown The failure of Greece and its creditors to reach a deal at last week’s many meetings has left very little time before the current bailout expires on Tuesday. Saturday’s Eurogroup meeting looks pretty... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
