UK Data Response Public Finances (Sep.) September’s UK public finance figures suggested that the downward trend in borrowing is back on track after a brief wobble last month. Admittedly, it might still be a struggle to meet the OBR’s... 21st October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook The changing shape of the UK economy - The winners and the losers Beneath the surface, it is clear that the economic recovery has not been firing on all cylinders recently. And the recovery faces a number of headwinds over the next year or so – in particular the re... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus What are the prospects for core Europe? With the periphery’s problems far from over, hopes for the euro-zone’s future rest with the core countries. But neither Germany nor France seem set for an economic transformation and the fiscal union... 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Can Malaysia ride out challenging times? Malaysia faces a number of challenges over the coming years, not least in adjusting to lower commodity prices. But there are reasons to think the economy will hold up relatively well and, while it is... 13th October 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Emerging Asia set for recovery The jump in Egyptian inflation to 9.2% y/y in September was driven almost entirely by a rise in the volatile food component. While we do expect inflation to fall back again, last month’s data mean an... 12th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook One extreme to the other Having been too optimistic on the outlook for the emerging world over much of the past five years, the consensus has now shifted too far in the other direction. Economic and financial vulnerabilities... 7th October 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Governance improves in key economies The latest Mo Ibrahim Index reports that progress on improving governance in Sub-Saharan Africa is stalling at a regional level. Some states, however, have continued to make progress – including many... 6th October 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Bungled policy response plunges economy into crisis The response of Nigerian policymakers to falling oil prices has only worsened their country’s economic slump. Africa’s largest economy is now on the cusp of a self-induced economic crisis. 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Is the consumer recovery running out of steam? The consumer outlook has dimmed slightly over the summer, suggesting that the economic recovery needs to become more broad-based if it is to gain momentum. The Q2 GDP breakdown showed that the... 1st October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Sep.) The euro-zone’s peripheral economies appear to have strengthened their fiscal positions further in the year to August. But for most, this year’s budget targets still look ambitious. 30th September 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Finance Ministry begins to see the bigger picture The Finance Ministry’s combative approach to some key issues, including the retrospective taxation of foreign companies and the potential composition of the proposed monetary policy committee, has... 30th September 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Reality bites Growth in the Gulf economies has held up well this year, but policymakers cannot delay the adjustment to low oil prices much longer. Tighter fiscal policy looms. Large savings and low debt levels mean... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fiscal uncertainty back to the top of the agenda This week it will be uncertainty over fiscal policy and a possible Federal government shutdown that dominates the headlines. Congress needs to pass a continuing spending resolution by the end of... 25th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Public finances should come good again soon Last week’s public finance figures suggested that deficit reduction has hit a roadblock. But the path of reduction has hardly been a completely smooth one so far. And the strong economic recovery in... 25th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Domestic strength counters external weakness GDP growth is now on track for a solid 2.5% gain in 2015. We had previously anticipated that growth would accelerate to nearer 3.0% in 2016 but, given the weakness of global demand and the dollar’s... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: in a fiscal hole, but default fears overdone Brazil’s public finances are in a mess, but mounting fears of a sovereign default are overdone. 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
