Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Central & South Eastern Europe a rare EM bright spot Emerging Europe remains a region of two halves. Its two largest economies – Russia and Turkey – will continue to struggle over the coming years as cyclical downturns compound long-standing structural... 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Aug.) August’s public borrowing figures brought the recent run of good news on the public finances to an abrupt end. That said, hopefully this will just be a temporary blip, as tax receipts should be... 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack FM Jaitley is playing a risky game India’s Finance Ministry continues to tread on dangerous ground by becoming increasingly vocal in its calls for further monetary easing. Most recently in an interview over the weekend, Finance... 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Would the public finances be better off after a Brexit? The UK Government could save about £10bn per year on its contributions to the EU’s budget if it left the EU. But a Brexit would not need to create much economic disruption to offset these savings... 21st September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina Activity Indicator (Sep.) Our Argentina Activity indicator (AAI) suggests that the economy grew in Q2 for the first time since 2013. However, this appears to have been due largely to an aggressive loosening of fiscal policy... 21st September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Would a Syriza defeat kill the anti-austerity movement? Suggestions that a defeat for the Syriza party in this weekend’s Greek election would kill off the eurozone’s anti-austerity movement are over the top. But there is little prospect of Germany and the... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Policies to promote FDI are paying dividends Measures taken by the government to encourage foreign direct investment into India are showing signs of success. Net FDI inflows rose last quarter to their highest level as a share of GDP since Q4... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM industry in the doldrums Industrial production growth in the emerging world remains very weak, with our aggregate measure of EM industrial output expanding by just 2.2% y/y in the three months to July – the slowest pace since... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Current Account (Q2) Data released this morning showed that South Africa’s current account deficit narrowed to 3.1% of GDP in Q2. While this is welcome news, a more detailed look at the figures highlight the economy’s... 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update External vulnerabilities are still low The rise in India’s current account deficit in Q2 was due in large part to seasonal patterns. The important point from a wider perspective is that the deficit remains small. This, combined with the... 14th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru rate hike not the start of an aggressive tightening cycle Although the timing of Peru’s decision to raise interest rates by 25bp (to 3.50%) was a surprise, we had been expecting the central bank to shift into tightening mode in the coming quarters... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Consumer spending to remain sluggish With poorly paid non-regular jobs accounting for the bulk of new job creation and the tight labour market not providing the hoped-for boost to wages, we think that the near-term outlook for consumer... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil downgraded, fiscal mess deepens There is growing evidence that, even before the latest drop in oil prices, the US shale oil revolution had started to weigh on oil producers in Latin America. Oil exports to the US from three of the... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update GST deadline unlikely to be met The long-awaited implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) in India could bring significant benefits to the economy. But a decade after it was first proposed, there are still a number of... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How large is Saudi Arabia’s fiscal buffer? With oil prices still languishing at multi-year lows, Saudi Arabia’s budget position – which looks set to post a shortfall of close to 20% of GDP this year – has come under increasing scrutiny in... 7th September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Advanced economies looking resilient We expect developed economies to weather the fallout from China’s August “devaluation” and the subsequent weakness in world equity markets quite well. Activity in the emerging world has slowed further... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
