Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Buoyant oil sector supports strong growth in Saudi Arabia Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy continued to grow by over 5% y/y at the end of Q2, supported by strong growth in the oil sector. However, with Iranian oil set to return to the... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update UAE’s planned sales tax a positive step Reports that the UAE is planning to introduce a sales tax, coming soon after some fuel prices were deregulated, add to the impression that it is taking fiscal consolidation more seriously than the... 13th August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Recovery unlikely to slow sharply next year Strong growth in household spending this year will give way to a weaker performance in 2016. But this slowdown will not be severe and the medium-term outlook is bright. 11th August 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina’s primaries put Scioli in the driving seat With most of the votes in Argentina’s primary elections now counted, it appears that Daniel Scioli, of the ruling left-wing Front for Victory coalition, is on course to win the Presidential elections... 10th August 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Renovation tax credit would only worsen housing excesses The Conservative campaign pledge to introduce a new home renovation tax credit if elected this autumn is possibly more misguided than the NDP and Liberal pledges to raise taxes during a recession... 10th August 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly The “Third Arrow” has slowed to a crawl Prime Minister Abe returned to power in late 2012 with the intention to lift average real GDP growth to 2% by implementing policies at “unprecedented speed”. Despite some success incertain areas... 7th August 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What to make of Saudi Arabia’s return to the bond market? Media reports suggesting that the Saudi central bank will issue bonds in greater volumes over the rest of this year have raised fresh concerns about the government’s seemingly relaxed response to the... 6th August 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Crisis deepens in Brazil The economic and political troubles facing Brazil have deepened over the past few weeks. The good news is that we think the big falls in the prices of the country’s commodity exports are probably now... 6th August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack More deflation on the way The UK is heading for a renewed period of deflation. The fall back in oil prices to below $50 per barrel will bear down on petrol prices soon. In addition, sterling has continued to appreciate and on... 5th August 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: The dangers of ‘feed bottle federalism’ The slowly-unfolding budgetary crisis affecting Nigeria’s 36 state-level governments poses some risk to the central governmnet’s fiscal health. But, more importantly, it also exemplifies the flaws in... 5th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Romanian MPC sounding increasingly cautious Having left its policy interest rate on hold at 1.75% earlier today, the Romanian MPC used this afternoon’s press conference to suggest that the government’s plans to loosen fiscal policy raise the... 4th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jul.) The peripheral economies continued to make fiscal progress in June. But halfway through the year, most have much more work to do if they are to meet their 2015 budget targets. The economic... 3rd August 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Brazil slashes its fiscal goals The substantial cuts to Brazil’s primary surplus targets announced this month underline the inherent difficulty of fixing budget problems against the backdrop of a weakening economy. As it happens... 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Government audit puts focus on corruption An audit of government expenditure provides yet more evidence of widespread corruption in Kenya. But while the new findings make for grim reading, the existence of the report – and others like it – is... 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Zambia: New Eurobond raises regional debt concerns The high yield demanded for Zambia’s recent Eurobond is not just a sign of that country’s deteriorating fiscal position. Market sentiment towards Sub-Saharan African government debt seems to be... 28th July 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Renewed focus on Gulf’s fiscal positions The fresh fall in oil prices has turned attention back to fiscal positions in the Gulf, with the UAE’s government the latest to announce measures to rein in spending. The UAE plans to deregulate fuel... 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
