Asia Economics Update Korean government responds to MERS threat The Korean government’s proposed fiscal stimulus package comes in response to the growing threat on the economy posed by the outbreak of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS). Although details of... 25th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Greek crisis casts fresh cloud over outlook The deepening crisis in Greece has been met with a muted reaction in the financial markets inEmerging Europe and there are few signs that it has had any impact on economic activity in theregion... 25th June 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s government wavering on fiscal consolidation Egypt’s public finances are gradually improving, but the recent watering down of tax and spending measures combined with the relatively unambitious targets set out in a recent draft budget has raised... 24th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EMs can weather Fed lift-off – problems could come later With a Fed rate hike sometime this year now widely anticipated, we suspect that any volatility in EM markets when the Fed finally raises rates should prove short-lived. The much bigger risk for... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Tentative signs of recovery Some of India's latest activity data are showing signs of improvement. For example, industrial production has accelerated over the past few months. Measures of expenditure and income tell a similar... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly The end is (really) near The failure to reach a deal at last week’s Eurogroup meeting and the rapid outflow of deposits from Greek banks suggest that a near-term euro-zone exit may now be more likely than not. We do not buy... 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (May) May’s public finances figures brought some more good news to the Chancellor ahead of his first Budget of the new parliament on 8th July. However, with a long way to go in order to restore the public... 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Another scary peek at Greece’s debt dynamics A look at Greece’s debt outlook using plausible economic assumptions underlines the inevitability of a substantial form of default, inside or outside the euro-zone. 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Foreign investment into Egypt showing signs of a revival The slowdown in Egypt’s economy since the start of the year has been disappointing, but there are at least encouraging signs that the government’s reform programme is starting to bear fruit. Indeed... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Pension reforms giving small boost to spending The Chancellor’s announcement regarding the amount of money withdrawn from pensions since the new freedoms took effect in April supports our view that the changes will provide a boost, but a... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Will Japan’s budget deficit continue to shrink? Even if the government goes ahead with the sales tax that is currently scheduled for 2017, we think it will struggle to reduce the budget deficit much further. Rather than more fiscal reforms, the... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greece’s default options This Update takes a detailed look at the forms of debt default that Greece might employ to reduce near-term financing pressures and lower its debt burden. There are various possible options, but the... 16th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Why there is no free lunch for Russia’s government There appears to be a great deal of confusion about how Russia can use its oil funds to finance its budget deficit, with some arguing that by drawing them down in rubles the government can both... 16th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy still not ready to pay down its debt Italy’s fiscal position is gradually improving. But contrary to the message from official forecasts, Italy has not yet done enough to start paying down its colossal public debt. 16th June 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf countries weathering the storm, but growth to weaken The Gulf economies have weathered the storm created by low oil prices relatively well this year, with foreign exchange reserves having been drawn down to sustain spending. Large savings mean that this... 15th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the Chancellor’s budget surplus law a step too far? Last week’s announcement by the Chancellor that he intends to pass a law to require all future governments to run a budget surplus “in normal times” engendered more accusations that he is playing... 12th June 2015 · 1 min read
