Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel: inflation softens in September but upside risks rising Israel’s economy is under strain from the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon, with supply constraints both holding back growth and causing inflation concerns to build. The softer-than-expected inflation... 15th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Event Canada Drop-In: Why the market is coming round to our BoC rates call 1729699200 We’ve long held the view that the Bank of Canada will need to cut rates at an aggressive pace – and market pricing is quickly aligning with our forecast for a 50-basis point m
Africa Rapid Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Sep. '24) Nigeria’s headline inflation picked up to 32.7% y/y in September, confirming that the CBN’s fears about upside risks from last month’s petrol price hikes were not misplaced. We think the CBN will... 15th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Bank Lending Survey points to patchy recovery The ECB’s latest Bank Lending Survey suggests that demand for credit is recovering, but the rebound in housing loans is much stronger than in consumer or enterprise loans. 15th October 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Hurricanes add to upside inflation risks Alongside the unexpectedly strong labour market data, September’s price data suggest that more than a few Fed officials might regret starting their easing cycle with a bigger 50bp rate cut. We... 11th October 2024 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly October meeting will be a close call The stronger labour market data makes the Bank of Canada’s decision in October a close call but, with upside inflation risks fading, and demand still very weak, we think t he Bank will want to bring... 11th October 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Consumer Prices (Sep.) Headline inflation fell to 8.6% y/y in Russia in September but this was a touch less than expected and the breakdown showed that core price pressures are easing only very slowly. It now looks very... 11th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank’s surveys imply GDP growth will remain weak The key activity and labour market indicators in the Bank of Canada’s surveys did not deteriorate last quarter, but they remain consistent with weak GDP growth, rather than the pick-up the Bank is... 11th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Kenya rate cuts, SA visa reforms Continued disinflation alongside an improved external environment mean that the 75bp interest rate cut delivered by Kenya’s central bank is likely to be followed up by further monetary loosening over... 11th October 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly September CPI data, Poland’s fiscal tightening plans The batch of September inflation data this week offered some welcome signs for policymakers, but the Hungarian central bank seems concerned about recent currency weakness which means that the easing... 11th October 2024 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Sheinbaum’s first two weeks in office, Banxico minutes President Claudia Sheinbaum's first two weeks in office suggest that she will seek to maintain Mexico’s close geopolitical alignment with the US. But on the domestic front, there have been more... 11th October 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly France’s 2025 budget; two-way risk for energy prices Having survived a vote of no confidence earlier in the week, France’s government presented its 2025 budget on Thursday, which highlighted the perilous state of the public finances. Meanwhile, energy... 11th October 2024 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea cuts, Bank Indonesia on a knife edge The Bank of Korea cut interest rates today and we are expecting the central banks of Thailand and the Philippines to follow suit at their scheduled meetings on Wednesday. The Monetary Authority of... 11th October 2024 · 8 mins read
Event Asia Drop-In: How far will policy easing go to support Asia’s economies? 1729067400 It’s a busy week for Asia’s central banks, with three key decisions expected on Wednesday following on from the latest Reserve Bank of India and Bank of Korea meetings.
