Africa Economics Weekly Kenya IMF loan, South Africa’s MTBPS, US election South Africa’s Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) unveiled this week was positioned as a pro-growth budget, but the reality is that the government is sticking to a tight fiscal stance... 1st November 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Strong GDP & inflation not enough to prevent 50bp cut The stronger-than-expected euro-zone GDP and inflation data released this week, as well as some comments by ECB policymakers, poured some cold water on expectations that the ECB might accelerate the... 1st November 2024 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone investment growth to remain weak Euro-zone investment has been weak since the pandemic. And despite the recent downward revision to our ECB interest rate forecasts, we don’t think it will pick up substantially, given the sluggish... 1st November 2024 · 4 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Oct .24) The economy has already regained some momentum on the back of increased policy support. But the extent of the recovery hinges on the scale of fiscal stimulus, which remains uncertain. Our base case is... 1st November 2024 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA to cut rates in Q1 as capacity pressures ease Financial markets continued to scale back their expectations for rate cuts by the RBA following the release of Q3 CPI data this week. As a result, t hey are now fully pricing in a rate cut only in May... 1st November 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Political vacuum won’t deter year-end rate hike It now looks likely that the existing LDP/Komeito coalition will remain in power via a partial alliance with the Democratic Party for the People. While there's a risk that the DPP demands policy... 1st November 2024 · 5 mins read
US Fed Watch 25bp will be the new normal With the economy on strong ground, we expect the Fed to shift to a more gradual pace of easing, cutting interest rates by 25bp at each meeting until rates reach 3.00-3.25%. The outcome of next week’s... 31st October 2024 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update One step at a time for the Riksbank Despite the Riksbank reopening the door to a 50bp cut at its last meeting, we think it will proceed gradually and cut by 25bps next week to 3.0%. This is because the policy rate is approaching the... 31st October 2024 · 5 mins read
BoE Watch Will the BoE start to cut interest rates quicker? The Bank of England will almost certainly cut interest rates for the second time in this cycle, from 5.00% to 4.75%, at the meeting on Thursday 7th November. But it is unlikely to hint that it intends... 31st October 2024 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Focus What does a declining population mean for Canada? The government’s plan to trim the population will hit potential GDP growth and, given the headwinds for residential investment, reduce the chance of GDP reaching that lower potential level. Rents on... 31st October 2024 · 15 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank to leave door open for December rate cut Norway’s economy is struggling and inflation keeps falling faster than Norges Bank expects, yet the Bank has not started loosening policy. Next week we think it will open the door to a December rate... 31st October 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest activity data out of Emerging Europe have been surprisingly weak, and GDP... 31st October 2024 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) Disinflation and looser monetary policy are setting the scene for stronger growth across Sub-Saharan Africa, and we expect growth to pick up in the coming quarters. But there are several headwinds... 31st October 2024 · 0 mins read
Japan Economics Update BoJ opens door to another rate hike BoJ Governor Ueda sounded more optimistic today and we’re sticking to our forecast of another rate hike at the Bank’s next meeting in December, though we don’t expect further tightening in 2025. 31st October 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico GDP (Q3 Provisional) The stronger-than-expected 1.0% q/q expansion in Mexico’s economy in Q3 confirms that the economy pulled out of the slump seen in the first half of the year last quarter. We still think the conditions... 30th October 2024 · 2 mins read
